Cameron Plan · Lillington, NC 27546

$221,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,592 sqft · Townhouse · 326 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this two-story townhome is host to an inviting open floorplan that seamlessly connects a chef-inspired kitchen, spacious Great Room and comfortable dining area. A rear patio extends the home out into the backyard for sunlit activities. Three bedrooms can be found upstairs, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Luxe owner's suite
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• COMFORTABLE DINING AREA
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: New construction inventory type: Plan; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $221,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home — Cameron plan; Address: 86 Fishing Pier Way, Lillington, NC 27546
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,592 (living space)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Cameron (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $221,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $234,024.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-425/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lillington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lillington-Shawtown Elementary (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 694 students, 100% FRL); Harnett Central Middle (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #323 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 1,024 students, 63% FRL); Harnett Central High (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 1,474 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 51% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 834 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,351 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Broward Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	2mo	$225,000	$141	86
51 Broward Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	2mo	$229,000	$144	85
96 Florida St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	4mo	$229,990	$144	85
47 Broward Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	3mo	$230,000	$144	84
17 Broward Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	3mo	$228,990	$144	84
63 Broward Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	3mo	$236,000	$148	84
13 Broward Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,581 (-1%)	2mo	$240,000	$152	84
50 Florida St	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	6mo	$237,500	$149	84
110 Florida St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,581 (-1%)	5mo	$233,000	$147	83
21 Broward Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	5mo	$225,000	$141	83
35 Broward Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,592 (0%)	5mo	$241,990	$152	83
87 Broward Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,437 (-10%)	1mo	$229,935	$160	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-40,145
• Equity at exit: $34,894

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-37,737
• Equity at exit: $20,234

Cash invested: $65,527 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27546

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 834
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,002 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,227
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$293 /mo · $3,510/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,047

Max offer price $228,904

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $45	+0% $-35	+5% $-116	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-114	+0% $-35	+5% $44	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $24	base $-35	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,506
• Closing costs: $7,021
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27 Broward Ln Lillington, NC	3.0	2.5	1592	$1,895	$1.19	25d	1	0.25mi
370 Beachcomber Dr Lillington, NC	4.0	3.0	2135	$2,450	$1.15	15d	1	0.26mi
108 Fairwinds Dr Lillington, NC	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,850	$1.31	15d	1	0.60mi
31 Fairwinds Dr Lillington, NC	3.0	2.5	1713	$1,795	$1.05	25d	1	0.68mi
31 Fairwinds Dr Lillington, NC	3.0	2.0	1713	$1,795	$1.05	15d	1	0.68mi
35 Village Edge Dr Lillington, NC	3.0	2.5	1899	$2,000	$1.05	15d	1	0.83mi
59 Village Edge Dr Lillington, NC	3.0	2.5	1899	$1,850	$0.97	25d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $221,990 Active 326 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $221,990 Active 325 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $221,990 Active 324 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $221,990 Active 323 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $221,990 Active 322 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,109
• − Property taxes: −$3,510
• − Insurance: −$1,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,922
• − Management: −$1,922
• − Depreciation: −$6,808
• Taxable loss: −$4,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lillington

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lillington, NC
• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 21,419
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 21,419
• Household income: $66,746
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.35%
• Current HPI: 198.2885
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B