328 Salt Creek Ln · Mexico Beach, FL 32456

$319,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2024 0.50 ac lot $187/sqft · 47% below area Est $601k · 47% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 328 Salt Creek, a stylish 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath w/ 2 car carage this townhome has Gulf views, located in Salt Creek--Mexico Beach's newest townhome community on the peaceful eastern edge of Bay County. Location, location, location this bright, open-floor plan home has a view of the water and is located on a a corner lot! Inside, you'll find high-end finishes like quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, luxury EVP flooring, and white cabinetry with brushed nickel hardware. The spacious kitchen and living area are perfect for hosting friends or relaxing after a day at the beach, and all four generously sized bedrooms are upstairs, giving you a private retreat to unwind. Built with coastal durability and modern style in mind, this home features Color-Plus Hardie Board siding, prairie-style doors, and 30-year dimensional shingles. The two-car garage comes with steel doors and automatic openers, while exterior entries are secured with Kwikset deadbolts. You'll also find thoughtful extras like weather-resistant outlets and hose bibs, so you're fully prepped for the beach lifestyle.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-448 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.0% in Mexico Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1028 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $222,151 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.00%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $600,551
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -46.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
272 Salt Creek Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,710 (0%)	9mo	$349,900	$205	92
235 Salt Creek Ln	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,710 (0%)	12mo	$368,496	$215	89
436 Salt Creek Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-11%)	8mo	$355,990	$235	64
3234 Hwy 98	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,806 (+6%)	21mo	$680,000	$377	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-80,328
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-106,555
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32456

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Active inventory: 1028
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$392 /mo · $4,703/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,788

Max offer price $240,798

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,300	$1.58	13d	1	0.07mi
264 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1533	$2,300	$1.50	13d	1	0.07mi
231 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,100	$1.44	13d	1	0.08mi
155 Town Village Blvd Mexico Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$2,085	$1.86	13d	9	0.11mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $319,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $319,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,900 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $344,900 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    price $344,900 1112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    Welcome to 328 Salt Creek, water view great location to start your Coatal Lifestyle!! This stylish 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome with Gulf views in the distance, located in Salt Creek—Mexico Beach's newest townhome community on the peaceful eastern edge of Bay County. This bright, open-concept home was made for easy, breezy beach living. Inside, you'll find high-end finishes like quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, luxury EVP flooring, and white cabinetry with brushed nickel hardware. The spacious kitchen and living area are perfect for hosting friends or relaxing after a day at the beach, and all four generously sized bedrooms are upstairs, giving you a private retreat to unwind. Built with coastal durability and modern style in mind, this home features Color-Plus Hardie Board siding, prairie-style doors, and 30-year dimensional shingles. The two-car garage comes with steel doors and automatic openers, while exterior entries are secured with Kwikset deadbolts. You'll also find thoughtful extras like weather-resistant outlets and hose bibs, so you're fully prepped for the beach lifestyle. Patio to enjoy Gulf breezes+star gazing. Top location for Tyndall+PB commuters.

19. 2026-04-29
    price $344,900 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    Welcome to 328 Salt Creek, water view great location to start your Coatal Lifestyle!! This stylish 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome with Gulf views in the distance, located in Salt Creek—Mexico Beach's newest townhome community on the peaceful eastern edge of Bay County. This bright, open-concept home was made for easy, breezy beach living. Inside, you'll find high-end finishes like quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, luxury EVP flooring, and white cabinetry with brushed nickel hardware. The spacious kitchen and living area are perfect for hosting friends or relaxing after a day at the beach, and all four generously sized bedrooms are upstairs, giving you a private retreat to unwind. Built with coastal durability and modern style in mind, this home features Color-Plus Hardie Board siding, prairie-style doors, and 30-year dimensional shingles. The two-car garage comes with steel doors and automatic openers, while exterior entries are secured with Kwikset deadbolts. You'll also find thoughtful extras like weather-resistant outlets and hose bibs, so you're fully prepped for the beach lifestyle. Patio to enjoy Gulf breezes+star gazing. Top location for Tyndall+PB commuters.

20. 2026-04-02
    listed $359,900 Active 1112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    Welcome to 328 Salt Creek, water view great location to start your Coatal Lifestyle!! This stylish 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome with Gulf views in the distance, located in Salt Creek—Mexico Beach's newest townhome community on the peaceful eastern edge of Bay County. This bright, open-concept home was made for easy, breezy beach living. Inside, you'll find high-end finishes like quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, luxury EVP flooring, and white cabinetry with brushed nickel hardware. The spacious kitchen and living area are perfect for hosting friends or relaxing after a day at the beach, and all four generously sized bedrooms are upstairs, giving you a private retreat to unwind. Built with coastal durability and modern style in mind, this home features Color-Plus Hardie Board siding, prairie-style doors, and 30-year dimensional shingles. The two-car garage comes with steel doors and automatic openers, while exterior entries are secured with Kwikset deadbolts. You'll also find thoughtful extras like weather-resistant outlets and hose bibs, so you're fully prepped for the beach lifestyle. Patio to enjoy Gulf breezes+star gazing. Top location for Tyndall+PB commuters.

21. 2026-04-02
    listed $359,900 Active 1202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1202 chars)

    Welcome to 328 Salt Creek, water view great location to start your Coatal Lifestyle!! This stylish 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome with Gulf views in the distance, located in Salt Creek—Mexico Beach's newest townhome community on the peaceful eastern edge of Bay County. This bright, open-concept home was made for easy, breezy beach living. Inside, you'll find high-end finishes like quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, luxury EVP flooring, and white cabinetry with brushed nickel hardware. The spacious kitchen and living area are perfect for hosting friends or relaxing after a day at the beach, and all four generously sized bedrooms are upstairs, giving you a private retreat to unwind. Built with coastal durability and modern style in mind, this home features Color-Plus Hardie Board siding, prairie-style doors, and 30-year dimensional shingles. The two-car garage comes with steel doors and automatic openers, while exterior entries are secured with Kwikset deadbolts. You'll also find thoughtful extras like weather-resistant outlets and hose bibs, so you're fully prepped for the beach lifestyle. Patio to enjoy Gulf breezes+star gazing. Top location for Tyndall+PB commuters.

22. 2026-01-10
    historical
23. 2025-07-26
    price $344,900
24. 2025-04-29
    price $364,000
25. 2025-04-07
    listed $344,900 Active
26. 2024-06-17
    status Active
27. 2024-06-17
    historical
28. 2024-05-24
    status Pending
29. 2024-05-13
    price $339,900
30. 2024-05-13
    listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,703 · $392/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,703 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$4,703
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,133
• − Management: −$2,133
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$11,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,672
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mexico Beach

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #12224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexico Beach, FL
• County: Gulf County · 7,510 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,510
• Household income: $64,681
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 194.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.36%
• Current HPI: 396.0936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $344,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $344,900 RAFGC
• 2026-04-02 Listed $359,900 RAFGC
• 2026-04-02 Listed $359,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $344,900 RAFGC
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $364,000 RAFGC
• 2025-04-07 Listed $344,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-17 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2024-06-17 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2024-05-13 Price Changed $339,900 RAFGC
• 2024-05-13 Listed $339,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+5653.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,703 · +5653.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.