429 Far Hill Dr · Ballwin, MO 63021

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1985 3,998 sqft lot Est $254k · 41% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked inside Rolling Hills Country Club Park, this is your shot to step into Ballwin with confidence and upside. Whether you are building a portfolio or planting roots in the highly sought-after Parkway School District, this one checks the boxes and leaves room to create something special. The main level delivers a warm, functional layout with a comfortable living room anchored by a wood burning fireplace, flowing into the dining space and kitchen, plus main floor laundry for everyday ease and a primary bedroom on the main level just steps from a full bath. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms, a second full bath, and a versatile bonus room offer flexibility for a home office, playroom, or cr

Key facts

• 3,998 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,092 (source: assessor); No home warranty
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Part of Rolling Hills and Rustic Valley Subdivision site; Annual association fee ($350) covering pool, common area maintenance, parking/roads maintenance and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Driveway
• Security: Storm door(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity (Ameren); Natural gas connected; Water connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half levels; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Enclosed rear screened porch; Porch; Wood fence; Back yard; Pool (community/association)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total (1 on main level, 2 on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on main level, 1 on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Gas cooling connection
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining room combo; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.0% in Ballwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MO, #357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oak Brook Elem. (math 62% / reading 69%, grade B+, #63 of 1,115 statewide, top 6%, 390 students, 8% FRL); Southwest Middle (math 42% / reading 58%, grade C, #68 of 391 statewide, top 18%, 688 students, 17% FRL); South High (math 42% / reading 68%, grade C, #65 of 521 statewide, top 13%, 1,598 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.33%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,436
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
429 Far Hill Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,092 (0%)	1mo	$149,900	$137	99
570 Twigwood Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,090 (-0%)	12mo	$320,000	$294	82
420 Echo Hill Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	996 (-9%)	10mo	$232,500	$233	71
409 Briarhill Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+10%)	18mo	$300,000	$251	61
648 Running Creek Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,236 (+13%)	1mo	$260,000	$210	60
723 Westglen Village Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+8%)	1mo	$325,000	$276	60
697 Woodrun Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,006 (-8%)	12mo	$299,000	$297	57
400 Woodrun Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+7%)	3mo	$350,000	$298	56
613 Hickory Knoll Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,247 (+14%)	8mo	$249,900	$200	56
247 Ramsey Ln	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	3mo	$230,000	$228	51
285 Ramsey Ln	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	12mo	$129,900	$129	42
239 Ramsey Ln	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-8%)	13mo	$219,999	$220	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,312
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $56,109
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63021

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,126/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $726	-5% $683	+0% $641	+5% $599	+10% $556
Rent	-10% $471	-5% $556	+0% $641	+5% $726	+10% $811
Rate	-1.0pp $716	-0.5pp $679	base $641	+0.5pp $602	+1.0pp $563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
411 Down Hill Dr Ballwin, MO	2.0	2.0	1313	$1,875	$1.43	25d	1	0.10mi
455 Down Hill Dr Ballwin, MO	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,826	$1.67	0d	1	0.11mi
424 Harvest Hill Ct Ballwin, MO	4.0	3.0	1307	$2,880	$2.20	45d	1	0.14mi
622 Rustic Valley Dr Ballwin, MO	3.0	2.0	1241	$2,400	$1.93	0d	1	0.22mi
691 Walnut Point Ct Ballwin, MO	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,100	$1.60	19d	1	0.40mi
284 Ramsey Ln Ballwin, MO	4.0	1.0	1296	$2,300	$1.77	16d	1	0.70mi
920 Quail Terrace Ct Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,209	$2.27	0d	10	0.83mi
170 Steamboat Ln Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1177	$2,302	$1.95	0d	11	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $149,900 Active
3. 2026-04-24
   historical $149,900
4. 2011-05-20
   soldstatus $130,000
5. 2002-12-24
   soldstatus $127,500
6. 1985-09-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,126 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,126 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,126
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $5,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $6,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ballwin

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #357

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballwin, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 91,586
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 55,666
• Household income: $120,177
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 932.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.71%
• Current HPI: 221.4498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+17.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Coming Soon $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records
• 1985-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,126 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.