1807 Pauline Dr #279 · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$149,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1988 6,900 sqft lot $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your dream home is waiting for you. Discover this beautiful fully remodeled with modern finishes, 2-bedroom mobile home. Bright and welcoming living areas, functional kitchen with plenty of storage space. The perfect combination of comfort, style and space for the whole family. Large outdoor space to relax, entertain and enjoy with family and friends. Brand new appliances. Move in ready.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Fully remodeled
• Brand new appliances

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• MODERN FINISHES
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF STORAGE SPACE
• LARGE OUTDOOR SPACE
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Total rooms: 8
• Financial info: $1,626.74 annual tax (2025)
• HOA & community: Association: Lake Mariana Acres; HOA required with $50 annual fee (about $4.17/month); Golf carts allowed; Pets permitted

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Faces west; Entry on crawlspace
• Construction: Other construction materials; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured single wide
• Exterior features: Lake access; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $149k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.57%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,610
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $10,333
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,627/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,244

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1040 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,475	$1.54	23d	1	1.23mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1036 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,445	$1.51	23d	1	1.23mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1065 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,425	$1.49	23d	1	1.23mi
325 W Pierce St Unit 1 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	3d	1	1.42mi
150 S Nekoma Ave Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,375	$1.83	23d	1	1.43mi
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 390-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $149,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,627
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $2,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1390.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1988-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,627 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.