207 Lake St · Joice, IA 50446

$149,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,422 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1920 0.52 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCTION- MOTIVATED SELLERS! 2-STORY, UPDATED HOME WITH 2 DECKS ON A HALF ACRE IN TOWN! Small town living at its best! Your family will appreciate this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home on just over a half-acre of land! Entering from a large, maintenance-free deck on the south side, you’ll love the large kitchen island, which is a focal point for hosting & daily routines. An adjoining dining area & laundry room with pantry completes this highly functional space. You’ll enjoy a main floor master bedroom & family room, both with partially vaulted ceilings. Natural light fills these rooms & the family room has a sliding patio door out to a small deck.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Sliding patio door
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• 2 DECKS
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• MAIN FLOOR MASTER BEDROOM
• PARTIALLY VAULTED CEILINGS
• SLIDING PATIO DOOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story single-family residence; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.52 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#752 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Lake Mills Community School District (rural): math 68% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #148 of 289 in IA (top 51%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,586 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $48,035
• Equity at exit: $108,519

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $145,948
• Equity at exit: $211,093

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50446

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,666/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,243

Max offer price $124,224

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   status Active
3. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-13
   price $149,000
5. 2026-02-19
   listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,666 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,003 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 20.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,666
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$4,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,043
• After-tax cash flow: $-640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Mills Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1916110
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,268
• Composite: 59.19/100
• National rank: #945
• State rank: #148 of 289 in IA

Livability — Joice

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #17322

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Joice, IA
• Population (ZIP): 518

Population outlook (Worth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,751 people
• By 2030: 7,775 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 7,722 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 7,645 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 7,785 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 7,554 · -2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 28% Scottish 9% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Worth

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.2% · R 63.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.53%
• Current HPI: 158.6483
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — IAR
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — IAR
• 2026-04-15 Pending — IAR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $149,000 IAR
• 2026-02-19 Listed $159,000 IAR

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,666 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.