318 8th Ave SW · Rugby, ND 58368

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1950 8,712 sqft lot Est $111k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Great location
• Near ellery park

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• NEAR ELLERY PARK
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• LARGE DINING AREA
• ACCESS TO THE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway/parking; Detached or attached garage with 1-car capacity
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Below-grade finished area present
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range / Oven; Refrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Finished partial basement; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#11 in ND, #3,228 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rugby 5 (town): math 42% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #20 of 53 in ND (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Pierce County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $133,340 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
709 Main Ave S	0.58mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,576 (+9%)	3mo	$120,000	$47	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $31,895
• Equity at exit: $79,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $97,122
• Equity at exit: $129,040

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58368

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $838/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,228

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $159,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $838 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$720/yr (+$60/mo · 85.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$838
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,280
• − Management: −$1,280
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$414
• After-tax cash flow: $1,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rugby 5
• NCES district ID: 3816130
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,186
• Composite: 39.42/100
• National rank: #3964
• State rank: #20 of 53 in ND

Livability — Rugby

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rugby, ND
• Population (ZIP): 3,205

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,272 people
• By 2030: 4,349 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 4,544 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 4,783 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 6,075 · +42.2%
• By 2100: 6,750 · +58.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Native American 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 29% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.9) · D 22.5% · R 76.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.1pp toward R · 2008: -23.8pp · 2024: -53.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.9 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+37.3 2008: R+23.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Current HPI: 96.1873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $159,000 MMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $838 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.