11879 Galba Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1967 10,332 sqft lot $146/sqft · 19% below area Est $198k · 19% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Great investment opportunity.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of City and Village association; Annual association fee of $150; Association provides other amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Built with other/unspecified construction materials
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Microwave, Gas Range; Full walk-out basement; Ceiling fans; Central air
• Laundry & utility: Utilities: Cable available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jury Elem. (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 420 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $160k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.87%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,288
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -19.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11879 Galba Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,092 (0%)	0mo	$159,900	$146	98
11975 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,157 (+6%)	10mo	$120,000	$104	76
4377 Varano Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+6%)	2mo	$150,000	$130	74
12415 Danube Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,124 (+3%)	6mo	$150,000	$133	71
4950 Patricia Ridge Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,124 (+3%)	4mo	$177,500	$158	70
11882 Nero Dr	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,080 (-1%)	3mo	$209,900	$194	69
4493 Caracalla Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+6%)	7mo	$190,000	$165	68
4384 Remus Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+3%)	2mo	$209,900	$186	67
4401 Rhine Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-1%)	7mo	$169,900	$157	65
4364 Satiris Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-1%)	8mo	$148,900	$138	60
11648 Galba Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	936 (-14%)	4mo	$169,000	$181	59
4895 Lockwig Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,092 (0%)	10mo	$124,900	$114	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $111,666
• Equity at exit: $144,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.51×
• Total profit: $336,025
• Equity at exit: $310,651

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	0.25mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	17d	1	0.35mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	2d	17	0.36mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	44d	3	0.52mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	44d	1	0.94mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	1.19mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	24d	1	1.26mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	7d	1	1.49mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 969-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $159,900 Active 969-char remark
3. 2026-04-26
   historical $159,900 969-char remark
4. 2014-06-02
   soldstatus 68-char remark

   Show marketing remark (68 chars)

   Ranch with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Great investment opportunity.

5. 2014-04-25
   listed $62,950 68-char remark

   Show marketing remark (68 chars)

   Ranch with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Great investment opportunity.

6. 2000-12-19
   soldstatus $83,000
7. 1997-06-10
   soldstatus
8. 1981-07-01
   soldstatus $52,000
9. 1981-07-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,325 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,325 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$137
• After-tax cash flow: $2,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+207.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Coming Soon $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-02 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-25 Listed $62,950 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,325 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.