Is 19050 Cetara Villa Dr in Hockley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.9% cap rate and $-640/mo modeled cash flow at a $274,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 19050 Cetara Villa Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 3.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,186/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 26.9

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.8/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.0/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
1% rule +1.8/10.0
DSCR +0.2/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$274,990

19050 Cetara Villa Dr · Hockley, TX 77447

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,619 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,460 sqft lot Garage $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 19050 Cetara Villa Drive in the amenity-rich community of Cypress Green. This beautiful Hill II floor plan combines the ease of single-story living with modern design and timeless curb appeal. Featuring an all-brick exterior, 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this home is thoughtfully designed for both comfort and functionality. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to the spacious covered patio, offering the perfect setting for outdoor dining, gatherings, or relaxation. Ideally situated within one of the area's most sought-after master-planned communities, this home offers an exceptional opportunity to enjoy style, convenience, and outstanding community amenities. Schedule your private tour today and experience all that Cypress Green has to offer. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

Key facts

Community amenities
All brick exterior
Open concept layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-640 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (16.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (20.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $219k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2409 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $218,577 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.68% ✗
Cap rate: 3.91%
Cash-on-cash: -8.50%
DSCR: 0.62
GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $322,990
List price: $274,990
Delta: -14.86%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22014 Matera Vista Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,759 (+9%)	3mo	$299,990	$171	83
26702 Plain Glee St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-0%)	2mo	$295,000	$183	65
16303 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (+0%)	4mo	$240,000	$148	61
16326 Chestnut Haven Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (+0%)	4mo	$301,990	$186	60
26723 Celestial Cypress Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,675 (+4%)	3mo	$299,990	$179	60
26735 Celestial Cypress Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,675 (+4%)	3mo	$294,740	$176	59
26810 Celestial Cypress Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,675 (+4%)	4mo	$280,000	$167	58
26715 Celestial Cypress Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-4%)	1mo	$269,690	$173	55
26551 Glad Fields Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+5%)	3mo	$324,990	$191	53
26747 Celestial Cypress Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-4%)	5mo	$289,665	$186	52
26410 Euphoria Way	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,755 (+8%)	3mo	$354,900	$202	50
16306 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+12%)	3mo	$284,540	$156	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.9%
Equity multiple: -0.10×
Total profit: $-99,412
Equity at exit: $48,159

10-year hold

IRR: -70.4%
Equity multiple: -0.81×
Total profit: $-163,367
Equity at exit: $27,926

Cash invested: $90,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 35 active · 22 under contract
Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $289,990 ($177/sqft)
Median days on market: 93 d
This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +12.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

Home prices YoY: -31.1%
Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 2409
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,186 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,694
Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,845/yr
Insurance: −$135
HOA: −$135
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
Net cashflow: $-640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,996

Max offer price $230,330

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-417	-5% $-529	+0% $-640	+5% $-752	+10% $-864
Rent	-10% $-813	-5% $-727	+0% $-640	+5% $-554	+10% $-468
Rate	-1.0pp $-478	-0.5pp $-558	base $-640	+0.5pp $-724	+1.0pp $-809

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $80,748
Closing costs: $9,690
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	139d	1	1.31mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	7d	1	1.32mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	11d	1	1.32mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Community features include curbs and gutters
HOA & community: Cypress Green POAAnnual association fee

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
Security: Prewired for securityOwned security systemSmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (under construction)Faces westSlab foundation
Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofBuilt in 2026
Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenOvenMicrowaveDisposal
Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: High ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboQuartz countersSoaking tubSeparate showerTub/showerWalk-in pantryCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $274,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $274,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $274,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $274,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $274,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $274,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $274,990 Active 45 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $274,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $274,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $274,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $274,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $274,990 Active 40 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $274,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $274,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $274,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-09-03

pricedays on market $274,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $279,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $279,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $279,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $279,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $279,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $279,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $279,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $279,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $279,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $279,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $279,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $279,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $279,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $279,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $279,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $279,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $279,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $279,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $279,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $279,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $279,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $279,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $279,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $279,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-04

pricedays on marketlisting id $279,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $323,317 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $323,317 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $323,317 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $323,317 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $323,317 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $323,317 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $323,317 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $323,317 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $323,317 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $26,229
− Mortgage interest: −$18,092
− Property taxes: −$4,845
− Insurance: −$1,615
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
− Management: −$2,098
− HOA: −$1,620
− Depreciation: −$9,396
Taxable loss: −$13,536

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,249
After-tax cash flow: $-4,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Cypress Green is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a good curb appeal. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and replacing the window screens to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
Rental Replace window screens — Improves tenant satisfaction ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 25,231
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 25,231
Household income: $116,925
Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
Current HPI: 249.6969
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-08-04 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
2026-08-04 Listed $323,317 HARMLS
2026-08-01 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
2026-06-11 Price Changed $323,317 Zillow
2026-06-08 Listed $323,316 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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