3411 S Camino Seco -- #351 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$25,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 1972 $16/sqft · 82% below area $749/mo HOA · 39% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The iconic saguaro stands guard outside of this large three-bedroom, double-wide home on the main boulevard of the park. It has a large living space between bedrooms which are situated at either end of home. Warm laminate floors and large windows let in beautiful light from all angles. Finished walls. Screened porch off kitchen and three sheds, one with electricity. 2 linen closets outside the two bedrooms at northern end of home. 3 vents available for portable air conditioning. Charming white fencing on large lot. Large kitchen with ample storage along with large pantry.

Key facts

• Linen closets
• Large kitchen
• Screened porch

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• THREE SHEDS
• LINEN CLOSETS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.07%
• DSCR: 5.41
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,820
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -81.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 93.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $27,684
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.43×
• Total profit: $51,990
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$749
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,167

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3455 S Magda Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	0.21mi
3292 S Kristina Park Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	23d	1	0.42mi
8467 E Shasta Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,725	$1.07	11d	1	0.57mi
4052 S Ferris Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,125	$1.27	14d	1	0.57mi
2650 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,500	$1.12	43d	1	0.62mi
9202 E 39th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,650	$0.95	23d	1	0.65mi
8829 E Eagle Creek Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,830	$1.43	15d	1	0.70mi
2618 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1442	$1,299	$0.90	23d	1	0.78mi
8905 E Pantano Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2013	$1,950	$0.97	3d	1	0.78mi
4275 S Mayberry Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1672	$1,850	$1.11	43d	1	0.79mi
4289 S Goodall Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,950	$1.42	43d	1	0.82mi
8737 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,095	$1.51	43d	1	0.88mi
9172 E Corte Arroyo Oeste Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	3d	1	0.92mi
2342 S Via de Dos Arroyos Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,795	$1.11	43d	1	0.92mi
3715 S Escalante Oasis Pl Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1601	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	0.93mi
4433 S Sunrise Bluff Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	23d	1	0.93mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,899	$2.20	1d	22	0.94mi
2217 S Oak Park Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1631	$3,200	$1.96	43d	1	0.95mi
8763 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,995	$1.58	3d	1	0.96mi
8315 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,095	$1.36	43d	2	0.97mi
2494 S Clovis Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,095	$1.36	43d	1	0.97mi
2461 S Clovis Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,095	$1.36	43d	1	0.98mi
8024 E Victoria Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,500	$1.33	23d	1	1.00mi
9009 E Kinross Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,715	$1.32	21d	1	1.02mi
8755 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,925	$1.31	17d	1	1.02mi
8164 E Cricket Song Trl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,750	$1.03	43d	1	1.08mi
3410 S Lakeside Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	1.12mi
8061 E Senate St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1298	$1,700	$1.31	21d	1	1.13mi
2024 S Birdie Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,675	$1.13	3d	1	1.16mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,645	$1.41	23d	1	1.17mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	3d	1	1.17mi
9055 E Alderpoint Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	21d	1	1.21mi
3246 S Winona Cir Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,830	$1.11	43d	1	1.22mi
9802 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1416	$1,945	$1.37	11d	1	1.22mi
9801 E Domenic Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,791	$1.25	11d	1	1.24mi
9699 E Vendela St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,800	$1.55	43d	1	1.34mi
7701 E 45th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,395	$1.24	11d	1	1.38mi
1633 S Augusta Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,000	$1.29	2d	1	1.40mi
10002 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1706	$2,000	$1.17	23d	1	1.47mi
9960 E Banister Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,575	$1.26	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $749 · $8,988/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-02
   price $25,000 583-char remark

   Show marketing remark (583 chars)

   The iconic saguaro stands guard outside of this large three-bedroom, double-wide home on the main boulevard of the park. It has a large living space between bedrooms which are situated at either end of home. Warm laminate floors and large windows let in beautiful light from all angles. Finished walls. Screened porch off kitchen and three sheds, one with electricity. 2 linen closets outside the two bedrooms at northern end of home. 3 vents available for portable air conditioning. Charming white fencing on large lot. Large kitchen with ample storage along with large pantry.

2. 2026-04-06
   listed $25,500 Active 583-char remark

   Show marketing remark (583 chars)

   The iconic saguaro stands guard outside of this large three-bedroom, double-wide home on the main boulevard of the park. It has a large living space between bedrooms which are situated at either end of home. Warm laminate floors and large windows let in beautiful light from all angles. Finished walls. Screened porch off kitchen and three sheds, one with electricity. 2 linen closets outside the two bedrooms at northern end of home. 3 vents available for portable air conditioning. Charming white fencing on large lot. Large kitchen with ample storage along with large pantry.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − HOA: −$8,988
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $7,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,805
• After-tax cash flow: $5,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $25,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $25,500 ARMLS