1202 Loma Dr #97 · Mira Monte, CA 92023

$199,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1983 Est $306k · 35% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is your opportunity to live in one of the best cities in California, Ojai. This wonderful 2 bed 2 bath home is in a very desirable 55+ community. The Mira Monte community has a well kept pool, spa, large clubhouse, a game room, and wonderful views. Please come quickly so you can enjoy your summer at this wonderful area of Ojai. If you love tennis, the Ojai Valley Tennis Tourney is right around the corner and close by, where you will see some of the very best junior, college and PAC 12 teams, celebrating over 120 years of tournament play. Why do you think people flock to Ojai in April to watch this tournament and also to enjoy some of the best food and wine offered in Southern Californi

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.2% in Mira Monte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#401 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Ojai Unified (suburban): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #257 of 517 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.48%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1075 Loma Dr #47	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,212 (-3%)	2mo	$249,000	$205	86
1202 Loma Dr #38	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	15mo	$160,000	$133	78
1202 Loma Dr #8	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	16mo	$153,000	$128	76
1202 Loma Dr #42	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+12%)	4mo	$210,000	$151	75
1202 Loma Dr #99	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+6%)	17mo	$350,000	$265	70
1202 Loma Dr #117	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	16mo	$269,000	$245	65
1075 Loma Dr #28	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	8mo	$210,000	$194	64
1202 Loma Dr #54	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	11mo	$293,000	$271	64
11 Don Antonio Way #11	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	9mo	$310,000	$248	59
65 Don Antonio Way #65	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+4%)	9mo	$350,000	$269	46
65 Don Antonio Way	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+4%)	9mo	$350,000	$269	46
3 Don Antonio Way #3	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	17mo	$201,000	$150	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $126,325
• Equity at exit: $89,704

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.49×
• Total profit: $306,536
• Equity at exit: $138,244

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92023

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,992/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$793
• Net cashflow: $1,605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,745

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
718 S La Luna Ave Ojai, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$3,600	$2.88	43d	1	0.66mi
714 S La Luna Ave Unit A Ojai, CA	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,600	$2.60	19d	1	0.73mi
511 S La Luna Ave Ojai, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$3,700	$3.08	43d	1	0.79mi
223 S Padre Juan Ave Ojai, CA	3.0	1.0	1050	$3,400	$3.24	15d	1	0.81mi
181 N Padre Juan Ave Ojai, CA	2.0	1.0	1500	$3,950	$2.63	43d	1	1.08mi
212 N Carrillo Rd Unit H Ojai, CA	2.0	2.5	1389	$3,450	$2.48	19d	1	1.10mi
251 N Encinal Ave Ojai, CA	3.0	2.0	1431	$7,250	$5.07	43d	1	1.19mi
750 Highland Dr Ojai, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$2,995	$3.99	1d	4	1.23mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2024-04-26
   historical
2. 2022-10-31
   soldstatus $180,000 Sold
3. 2022-09-20
   status Pending
4. 2022-08-31
   price $199,500
5. 2022-08-11
   price $204,000
6. 2022-07-30
   price $204,500
7. 2022-05-21
   price $209,500
8. 2022-03-19
   listed $199,500
9. 2022-03-19
   listed $214,500 Active
10. 2022-03-19
    listed $199,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥96°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$2,992
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,626
• − Management: −$3,626
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable income: $17,104
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,105
• After-tax cash flow: $15,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ojai Unified
• NCES district ID: 0628270
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $67,618
• Composite: 31.97/100
• National rank: #5839
• State rank: #257 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mira Monte

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #13701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mira Monte, CA

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-26 Delisted — OVMLS
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) $180,000 TheMLS
• 2022-09-20 Pending — TheMLS
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $199,500 TheMLS
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $204,000 TheMLS
• 2022-07-30 Price Changed $204,500 TheMLS
• 2022-05-21 Price Changed $209,500 TheMLS
• 2022-03-19 Listed $199,500 SDMLS
• 2022-03-19 Listed $214,500 TheMLS
• 2022-03-19 Listed $199,500 OVMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $258 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.