104 Koenig Rd · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$109,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1941 6,500 sqft lot $98/sqft · 64% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and see what this adorable home has to offer! This homeowner lived here till November in this 3-bedroom, 1 bath home, all mechanicals are working. New gas stove, refrigerator, washer dryer all are working. Roof part original in back front unknown. Downstairs has a small dark room for photo developing years ago. Can be half bath or put heater and hot water tank back in there from upstairs. One beautiful street no rear neighbors ever, parking pad, where garage was, fenced yard . Just 15 minutes to downtown 10 minutes to Wegmans, Target, Home Depot, Lowes and many restaurants. Investors and house flippers; come make this your "dreamhouse", showings start 5-13-2026 7pm offers 5-1

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• New gas stove
• Parking pad

Tags

• NEW GAS STOVE
• FENCED YARD
• PARKING PAD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Concrete driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 130

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Galley kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Galley kitchen; Programmable thermostat; Other features / see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer on main level; Dryer on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.49%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,205
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: -63.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
59 Idlewood Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,119 (+1%)	2mo	$335,000	$299	86
104 Greenhaven Ter	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-1%)	5mo	$325,000	$295	79
66 Evergreen Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	990 (-11%)	2mo	$190,000	$192	74
615 Lynbrook Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,038 (-6%)	5mo	$247,900	$239	73
542 Lynbrook Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,082 (-2%)	5mo	$327,500	$303	73
257 Evergreen Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,020 (-8%)	5mo	$280,000	$275	66
65 Sweet Briar Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+12%)	5mo	$299,000	$242	64
325 Glenalby Rd	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,238 (+12%)	2mo	$285,000	$230	63
158 Overbrook Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,019 (-8%)	2mo	$255,000	$250	59
482 Woodstock Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,199 (+8%)	3mo	$275,650	$230	59
132 Overbrook Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,042 (-6%)	4mo	$261,000	$250	59
404 Woodgate Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+12%)	4mo	$299,000	$241	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $29,945
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $112,295
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,982/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,201

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Koenig Rd Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.5	1481	$2,200	$1.49	1d	1	0.20mi
3948 Ridge Lea Rd Unit D Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	952	$1,850	$1.94	1d	1	0.61mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	3d	1	0.81mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	15d	1	0.81mi
2776 Eggert Rd #2 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,600	$1.65	23d	1	0.92mi
1410 Deer Lakes Dr Amherst, NY	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,995	$1.53	2d	5	1.01mi
4585 Chestnut Ridge Rd #4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1197	$1,600	$1.34	23d	1	1.12mi
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	1d	35	1.21mi
325 Kaymar Dr Unit 325 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,695	$1.58	43d	1	1.26mi
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	19d	1	1.37mi
4765 N Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $109,000 Active 733-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,982 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,982 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$3,982
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $6,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,500
• After-tax cash flow: $5,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-21 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $109,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,982 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.