23 Ontario Ln Unit ON23 · Goodview, MN 55987

$31,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as a playground, a basketball court, scenic views, and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Basketball court
• Scenic views
• Playground

Tags

• PLAYGROUND
• BASKETBALL COURT
• SCENIC VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $859 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#236 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Winona Area Public School District (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #244 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.0%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Winona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $220 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $954 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winona County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $31,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.79%
• DSCR: 6.15
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.38×
• Total profit: $56,806
• Equity at exit: $4,741

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.17×
• Total profit: $152,861
• Equity at exit: $2,749

Cash invested: $8,904 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55987

• Rents YoY: 18.0%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$167
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $477/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $278

Max offer price $31,800

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,950
• Closing costs: $954
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $31,800 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $31,800 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $31,800 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $31,800 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $31,800 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $31,800 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $31,800 Active 7 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,781
• − Property taxes: −$477
• − Insurance: −$159
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − Depreciation: −$925
• Taxable income: $10,424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,502
• After-tax cash flow: $7,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. A comprehensive renovation is recommended to address the poor condition of the exterior, roof, flooring, and other systems.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Age and potential leaks
• Major flooring — Worn and possibly substandard
• Major interior walls/paint — Painted walls show wear
• Major windows — Older windows may need replacement
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Age and potential inefficiency
• Major landscaping — Basic landscaping, no curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability
• Resale new roof — Fixes potential leaks and extends home life
• Resale new flooring — Improves comfort and aesthetics
• Resale new paint — Freshens interior and exterior
• Resale new windows — Enhances energy efficiency and view
• Resale HVAC upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Resale landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Age and potential leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and possibly substandard	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Painted walls show wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Older windows may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Age and potential inefficiency	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Basic landscaping, no curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability ↑
• Resale new roof — Fixes potential leaks and extends home life ↑
• Resale new flooring — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑
• Resale new paint — Freshens interior and exterior ↑
• Resale new windows — Enhances energy efficiency and view ↑
• Resale HVAC upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Resale landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2744070
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,678
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6058
• State rank: #244 of 301 in MN

Livability — Goodview

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #5015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodview, MN
• County: Winona County · 34,072 people
• Metro: Winona, MN
• Population (ZIP): 34,072
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Winona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,614 people
• By 2030: 50,243 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 48,142 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 45,872 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 42,416 · -16.2%
• By 2100: 40,031 · -20.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winona

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: -4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.9 2020: D+0.4 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+12.9 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -166.61%
• Current HPI: 193.7509
• Rent YoY: ▲ 17.99%
• Metro: Winona, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B