Falcon Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$360,999

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,471 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story Falcon floor plan in Firethorn features 2,471 square feet of open-concept living space, presenting 5 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a loft, 2-car garage, and many more memorable details. Downstairs includes a foyer, great room, a secondary bedroom with ensuite bathroom, kitchen and dining space alongside laundry and half-bath, while upstairs includes a loft space and three secondary bedrooms that share a bathroom. The primary suite is also nestled upstairs and includes a primary bathroom with dual vanity sinks, a walk-in shower, and spacious walk-in closet. Discover the Sherwood today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 103 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $360,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction, Falcon plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 2471 (plan measurement); Address: Parrish, FL 34219 (Plan: Falcon)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based new construction)

🏗️ New construction. The $360,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $412,657.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $361k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $329k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $328,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $412,657
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13427 Camelot Ct	0.08mi	5/3.5	2,516 (+2%)	0mo	$377,999	$150	93
13239 Commons Ave	0.11mi	5/3.0	2,287 (-7%)	1mo	$385,999	$169	80
13215 Commons Ave	0.09mi	5/3.0	2,287 (-7%)	4mo	$379,999	$166	78
13411 Commons Ave	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,582 (+4%)	3mo	$445,414	$173	76
14266 Sawmill St	0.42mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,600 (+5%)	3mo	$526,049	$202	64
13130 Empress Jewel Trl	0.40mi	5/2.5	2,389 (-3%)	9mo	$373,700	$156	64
13209 Sunset Sapphire Cir	0.53mi	5/2.5	2,389 (-3%)	4mo	$346,000	$145	63
13123 Empress Jewel Trl	0.43mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+4%)	10mo	$353,200	$137	57
14234 Sawmill St	0.50mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,721 (+10%)	2mo	$500,000	$184	53
13114 Empress Jewel Trl	0.40mi	5/2.5	2,215 (-10%)	10mo	$368,800	$167	52
13135 Empress Jewel Trl	0.44mi	5/2.5	2,215 (-10%)	10mo	$372,800	$168	50
12965 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,584 (+5%)	9mo	$351,900	$136	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-85,325
• Equity at exit: $61,529

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-123,920
• Equity at exit: $35,679

Cash invested: $115,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$516 /mo · $6,190/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,610

Max offer price $393,526

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,164
• Closing costs: $12,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	3d	1	0.32mi
12227 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3326	$3,500	$1.05	3d	1	0.68mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	15d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,999 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,999 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,999 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,999 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,999 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,999 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $360,999 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,999 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,999 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $360,999 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,999 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,999 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,999 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,999 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,115
• − Property taxes: −$6,190
• − Insurance: −$2,063
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,305
• − Management: −$3,305
• − Depreciation: −$12,005
• Taxable loss: −$8,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,081
• After-tax cash flow: $495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B