Falcon Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$361,999

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,471 sqft · SingleFamily · 246 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage $151/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story Falcon floor plan in Firethorn features 2,471 square feet of open-concept living space, presenting 5 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a loft, 2-car garage, and many more memorable details. Downstairs includes a foyer, great room, a secondary bedroom with ensuite bathroom, kitchen and dining space alongside laundry and half-bath, while upstairs includes a loft space and three secondary bedrooms that share a bathroom. The primary suite is also nestled upstairs and includes a primary bathroom with dual vanity sinks, a walk-in shower, and spacious walk-in closet. Discover the Sherwood today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 245 days

🏗️ New construction. The $361,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $439,976.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $362k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-676 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 3218 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,490 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.58%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,976
• List price: $361,999
• Delta: -17.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 3.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13818 Sawmill St	0.17mi	5/3.0	2,287 (-7%)	1mo	$394,999	$173	77
13522 Rowhouse Ct	0.25mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,582 (+4%)	3mo	$484,954	$188	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-123,511
• Equity at exit: $65,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-198,450
• Equity at exit: $38,041

Cash invested: $123,193 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 69 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 31.8 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $379,990 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 136 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 3218
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$550 /mo · $6,600/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$151
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $-676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,040

Max offer price $342,229

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-371	-5% $-523	+0% $-676	+5% $-828	+10% $-980
Rent	-10% $-927	-5% $-801	+0% $-676	+5% $-550	+10% $-424
Rate	-1.0pp $-454	-0.5pp $-564	base $-676	+0.5pp $-790	+1.0pp $-906

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,994
• Closing costs: $13,199
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,600	$1.20	123d	1	0.32mi
13033 Empress Jewel Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	11d	1	0.44mi
13029 Empress Jewel Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	2.5	2382	$2,995	$1.26	0d	1	0.44mi
13033 Empress Jewel Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,690	$1.44	0d	1	0.44mi
12490 Sweet Angel Aura Way Parrish, FL	5.0	2.5	2254	$2,800	$1.24	37d	1	0.48mi
12471 Sweet Angel Aura Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,450	$1.23	10d	1	0.52mi
13118 Empress Jewel , FL	5.0	2.5	2215	$3,100	$1.40	2d	1	0.59mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	157d	1	0.71mi
13008 Merlot Sunstone Cv Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2584	$3,200	$1.24	35d	1	0.74mi
11924 Blue Diamond Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	4.0	3354	$3,600	$1.07	0d	1	0.94mi
11824 Blue Diamond Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2576	$2,995	$1.16	10d	1	1.09mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: PlanStatus: Active
• Financial info: List price $360,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction, Falcon plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 2471 (plan measurement)Address: Parrish, FL 34219 (Plan: Falcon)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $361,999 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $361,999 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $361,999 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $361,999 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $361,999 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $361,999 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $361,999 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $361,999 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $361,999 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $361,999 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $361,999 Active 235 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $361,999 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $361,999 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $361,999 Active 232 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $361,999 Active 231 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $361,999 Active 230 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $361,999 Active 229 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $361,999 Active 228 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $361,999 Active 227 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $361,999 Active 226 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $361,999 Active 225 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $361,999 Active 224 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $361,999 Active 223 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $361,999 Active 222 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $361,999 Active 221 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $361,999 Active 220 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $361,999 Active 219 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $361,999 Active 218 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $361,999 Active 217 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $361,999 Active 216 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $361,999 Active 215 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $361,999 Active 214 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $361,999 Active 213 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $361,999 Active 212 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $361,999 Active 211 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $361,999 Active 210 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $361,999 Active 209 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $361,999 Active 208 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $361,999 Active 207 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $361,999 Active 206 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $361,999 Active 205 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $361,999 Active 204 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $361,999 Active 202 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $361,999 Active 201 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $361,999 Active 199 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $361,999 Active 198 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $361,999 Active 197 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $361,999 Active 195 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $361,999 Active 194 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $361,999 Active 193 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,646
• − Property taxes: −$6,600
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,058
• − Management: −$3,058
• − HOA: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$12,799
• Taxable loss: −$15,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,355–$37,065 screening

The home is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed, such as painting the exterior and cleaning gutters, to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage to the siding and foundation. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: PlanStatus: Active
• Financial info: List price $360,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction, Falcon plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 2471 (plan measurement)Address: Parrish, FL 34219 (Plan: Falcon)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based new construction)