205 Main St · Bayard, NM 88023

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1996 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to Move in! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is on a large lot in Bayard. The home is very open and is Taped and Textured though out.

Key facts

• Three lakes
• Refrigerated air
• Natural gas heater

Tags

• THREE LAKES
• HUNTING AREAS
• OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL AREAS
• NATURAL GAS APPLIANCES
• REFRIGERATED AIR
• NATURAL GAS HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#64 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Cobre Consolidated Schools (town): math 13% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #56 of 95 in NM (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Grant County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,633 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.88%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $54,964
• Equity at exit: $83,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $152,260
• Equity at exit: $166,127

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88023

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $637/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $855

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $110,000 Active 392-char remark
16. 2021-12-06
    soldstatus 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Ready to Move in! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is on a large lot in Bayard. The home is very open and is Taped and Textured though out.

17. 2021-08-08
    listed $102,000 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Ready to Move in! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is on a large lot in Bayard. The home is very open and is Taped and Textured though out.

18. 1997-01-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $880 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$243/yr (+$20/mo · 38.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$637
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,004
• − Management: −$1,004
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$0
• After-tax cash flow: $1,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobre Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500600
• Math proficiency: 13% —
• Reading proficiency: 33% —
• Median HH income: $32,044
• Composite: 21.77/100
• National rank: #13581
• State rank: #56 of 95 in NM

Livability — Bayard

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #13728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayard, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,370

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,478 people
• By 2030: 25,179 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 22,711 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 20,807 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 16,893 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 13,020 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 79% Two or more races 37% White 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.1) · D 51.3% · R 46.3% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.1 2020: D+7.2 2016: D+7.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.01%
• Current HPI: 173.8461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+7.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $110,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-12-06 Sold (MLS) — SCRMLS
• 2021-08-08 Listed $102,000 SCRMLS
• 1997-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+25.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $637 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.