2410 Ronita Ln #15 · Lake Isabella, CA 92340

$54,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1994 $64/sqft · 19% below area Est $67k · 19% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom 2-bath 834 sq. ft. single wide mobile home in clean, quiet 55+ park. This home has been fully remodeled. This home comes with a stove, refrigerator, and dishwasher as well as a patio, deck, and 2-car carport. This mobile home represents a fantastic opportunity for affordable homeownership! There is also an RTO option with a small down and small payments.

Key facts

• 2-car carport
• Fully remodeled
• Deck

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• PATIO
• DECK
• 2-CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($373 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,380 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.20%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,502
• List price: $54,000
• Delta: -18.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2410 Ronita Ln #34	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	10mo	$25,000	$32	77
2700 Pinon St	0.27mi	2/1.0	728 (-13%)	19mo	$67,500	$93	45
2212 Commercial Ave	0.53mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	12mo	$136,000	$142	41
2040 Young Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	21mo	$70,000	$97	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $49,986
• Equity at exit: $24,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.74×
• Total profit: $116,987
• Equity at exit: $37,420

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92340

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $224/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $411

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-15
   listed $54,000 Active 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom 2-bath 834 sq. ft. single wide mobile home in clean, quiet 55+ park. This home has been fully remodeled. This home comes with a stove, refrigerator, and dishwasher as well as a patio, deck, and 2-car carport. This mobile home represents a fantastic opportunity for affordable homeownership! There is also an RTO option with a small down and small payments.

2. 2026-03-31
   historical
3. 2025-07-18
   price $54,000
4. 2025-07-08
   price $49,000
5. 2025-05-16
   price $54,900
6. 2024-09-12
   listed $59,800 Active
7. 2024-08-31
   historical
8. 2024-07-04
   status Active
9. 2024-06-30
   historical
10. 2024-01-24
    listed $59,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $224 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$187/yr (+$16/mo · 83.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 11 d/yr ≥91°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$224
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $7,762
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,863
• After-tax cash flow: $6,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $54,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $54,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $49,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $54,900 CRMLS
• 2024-09-12 Listed $59,800 CRMLS
• 2024-08-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-07-04 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-06-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-01-24 Listed $59,800 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $224 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.