14524 Scottburgh Glen Dr · Balm, FL 33598

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 169 Days on market

Built 2019 5,900 sqft lot $8/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers functional space and cozy feels. This community has lots to do and nestled in the south shore area. Brand new appliances! Newly updated ac unit! 6ft privacy fence with 2 gates for easy mowing access. Super clean and move in ready!

Key facts

• 2 gates
• 6ft privacy fence
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED AC UNIT
• 6FT PRIVACY FENCE
• 2 GATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $230k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,037 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.57%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-62,181
• Equity at exit: $56,219

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-92,098
• Equity at exit: $43,396

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$531 /mo · $6,376/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,940

Max offer price $281,578

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-100	+0% $-189	+5% $-278	+10% $-368
Rent	-10% $-403	-5% $-296	+0% $-189	+5% $-83	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-109	base $-189	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14525 Scottburgh Glen Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$3,300	$1.94	22d	1	0.05mi
10237 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1914	$2,586	$1.35	5d	1	0.33mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,250	$1.44	5d	1	0.45mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,250	$1.27	18d	1	0.45mi
10438 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,500	$1.34	24d	1	0.50mi
13924 Arbor Pines Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,545	$1.33	24d	1	0.78mi
14217 Poke Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1913	$2,511	$1.31	5d	1	0.78mi
14435 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,231	$1.09	14d	1	0.79mi
14207 Poke Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1897	$2,350	$1.24	24d	1	0.82mi
14471 Stagedoor Johnny Pl Ruskin, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,344	$2.06	3d	22	1.03mi
14452 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,250	$1.32	13d	1	1.06mi
14409 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,800	$1.08	24d	1	1.09mi
14339 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,350	$1.38	22d	1	1.11mi
14442 Editors Note St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,100	$1.23	5d	1	1.12mi
14010 Hollow Leaf Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,195	$1.31	10d	1	1.26mi
15628 Aurora Lake Cir Wimauma, FL	2.0	2.0	1747	$2,200	$1.26	24d	1	1.30mi
10206 Stedfast Ct Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	2051	$2,650	$1.29	24d	1	1.32mi
10405 Apollo Manor Cir Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$3,163	$2.83	2d	31	1.37mi
10313 Celtic Ash Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,005	$1.44	16d	1	1.43mi
10454 Shady Preserve Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	3.0	1642	$2,000	$1.22	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    price $315,000 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers functional space and cozy feels. This community has lots to do and nestled in the south shore area. Brand new appliances! Newly updated ac unit! 6ft privacy fence with 2 gates for easy mowing access. Super clean and move in ready!

16. 2026-02-19
    price $330,000 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers functional space and cozy feels. This community has lots to do and nestled in the south shore area. Brand new appliances! Newly updated ac unit! 6ft privacy fence with 2 gates for easy mowing access. Super clean and move in ready!

17. 2025-12-31
    listed $345,000 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Welcome home! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers functional space and cozy feels. This community has lots to do and nestled in the south shore area. Brand new appliances! Newly updated ac unit! 6ft privacy fence with 2 gates for easy mowing access. Super clean and move in ready!

18. 2020-02-29
    soldstatus $229,750 Sold 916-char remark

    Show marketing remark (916 chars)

    Under Construction. This beautiful home is in the Adams Homes community of Stoneridge at Ayersworth Glen, very close to I-75. This home comes loaded with upgrades like 5 1/4" baseboards, 36" Kitchen Cabinets with crown-molding and custom bump, Craftsman style interior and closet doors with brushed nickel lever handles, All MOEN Brushed nickel faucets with Goose Neck with OneTouch faucet in Kitchen, Whirlpool Glass-top range, dishwasher and Built-in Microwave above the Range, Upgraded Cut-pile Carpet with 6 lbs padding, Kichler Lantern Style Coach Lights installed on Garage Sides and Entry Drop-Down Attic Stairs, Finished Garage, TAEXX Tubes in the walls pest defense system. All our Homes come with Adams Homes legendary building quality, attention to detail, and Outstanding Customer Service. Make this Home Yours TODAY with only $1000 deposit. * * photos are of model - not of actual home * *

19. 2019-10-01
    status Pending 916-char remark

    Show marketing remark (916 chars)

    Under Construction. This beautiful home is in the Adams Homes community of Stoneridge at Ayersworth Glen, very close to I-75. This home comes loaded with upgrades like 5 1/4" baseboards, 36" Kitchen Cabinets with crown-molding and custom bump, Craftsman style interior and closet doors with brushed nickel lever handles, All MOEN Brushed nickel faucets with Goose Neck with OneTouch faucet in Kitchen, Whirlpool Glass-top range, dishwasher and Built-in Microwave above the Range, Upgraded Cut-pile Carpet with 6 lbs padding, Kichler Lantern Style Coach Lights installed on Garage Sides and Entry Drop-Down Attic Stairs, Finished Garage, TAEXX Tubes in the walls pest defense system. All our Homes come with Adams Homes legendary building quality, attention to detail, and Outstanding Customer Service. Make this Home Yours TODAY with only $1000 deposit. * * photos are of model - not of actual home * *

20. 2019-09-16
    listed $228,900 Active 916-char remark

    Show marketing remark (916 chars)

    Under Construction. This beautiful home is in the Adams Homes community of Stoneridge at Ayersworth Glen, very close to I-75. This home comes loaded with upgrades like 5 1/4" baseboards, 36" Kitchen Cabinets with crown-molding and custom bump, Craftsman style interior and closet doors with brushed nickel lever handles, All MOEN Brushed nickel faucets with Goose Neck with OneTouch faucet in Kitchen, Whirlpool Glass-top range, dishwasher and Built-in Microwave above the Range, Upgraded Cut-pile Carpet with 6 lbs padding, Kichler Lantern Style Coach Lights installed on Garage Sides and Entry Drop-Down Attic Stairs, Finished Garage, TAEXX Tubes in the walls pest defense system. All our Homes come with Adams Homes legendary building quality, attention to detail, and Outstanding Customer Service. Make this Home Yours TODAY with only $1000 deposit. * * photos are of model - not of actual home * *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,376 · $531/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,376 · $531/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$6,376
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$7,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,833
• After-tax cash flow: $-438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+37.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-29 Sold (MLS) $229,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-16 Listed $228,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,376 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.