1225 NW 21st St #2615 · North River Shores, FL 34994

$154,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · Condo public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1978 $153/sqft · 7% above area Est $144k · 7% over $529/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This lovely home has been exquisitely remodeled with a designers touch. Featuring waiscoting in the entryway, wood tone, waterproof luxury vinyl flooring thru out and modern light fixtures. A wonderful corner space where the natural light filters in through the impact windows. The kitchen has been opened to the dining area and boasts granite counter tops, stainless appliances, white wooden cabinets and recessed lighting. With two bedrooms and two full bathrooms, the primary is an en suite featuring beautifully detailed tile work and a step in shower. Enjoy a bit of nature from the lanai accessible from both the living room and primary bedroom. Vista del Lago active, social community, an oasis of ponds with catch and release fishing, mature trees nestled in a scenic and convenient North River Shores location. Live music, boutique shoppes and so many dining options in nearby historic waterfront Stuart and Jensen Beach with the ocean just a causeway away. Enjoy the Florida life!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Stainless appliances
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• REMODELED
• IMPACT WINDOWS
• OPENED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• WHITE WOODEN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.7% in North River Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#292 in FL, #4,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $155k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.96%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,127
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: 7.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-21,624
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-28,815
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34994

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $477/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$529
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,830

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1225 NW 21st St Unit 8-815 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,950	$1.92	23d	1	0.03mi
1225 NW 21st St Unit 7-705 Stuart, FL	1.0	1.5	747	$1,550	$2.07	14d	1	0.03mi
1225 NW 21st St Stuart, FL	1.0	1.5	773	$1,500	$1.94	21d	3	0.03mi
1225 NW 21st St Stuart, FL	1.0	1.5	773	$1,350	$1.75	14d	1	0.03mi
1225 NW 21st St Unit 36-3609 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,700	$1.68	21d	1	0.03mi
1225 NW 21st St Unit 35-3512 Stuart, FL	1.0	1.5	747	$1,395	$1.87	23d	1	0.03mi
2201 NW Federal Hwy Stuart, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$2,530	$2.34	14d	18	0.30mi
1900 NW Federal Hwy Stuart, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$3,973	$3.92	14d	21	0.32mi
1010 NW Fresco Way Jensen Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,122	$2.10	14d	10	0.61mi
2233 NW 22nd Ave #102 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,200	$2.14	21d	1	0.69mi
2273 NW 22nd Ave #104 Stuart, FL	3.0	3.0	1388	$3,600	$2.59	23d	1	0.70mi
2283 NW 22nd Ave #104 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1074	$2,100	$1.96	23d	1	0.71mi
974 NW Spruce Ridge Dr Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,100	$2.03	23d	1	0.89mi
964 NW Spruce Ridge Dr Unit D1 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$2,200	$2.08	23d	1	0.94mi
1655 NW Fork Rd Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$3,600	$2.59	23d	1	0.97mi
800 NW Fork Rd Stuart, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,850	$2.09	14d	2	1.13mi
25 NE 17th St Stuart, FL	3.0	2.0	990	$2,000	$2.02	23d	1	1.19mi
1398 NW Cavendish Ct Stuart, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1242	$2,393	$1.93	21d	11	1.20mi
3624 NW Adriatic Ln Unit 308 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,659	$2.12	23d	1	1.37mi
64 NE Acacia Trl Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	23d	1	1.39mi
975 NW Flagler Ave #403 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1082	$3,000	$2.77	23d	1	1.39mi
975 NW Flagler Ave #407 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$4,500	$3.67	23d	1	1.39mi
975 NW Flagler Ave #306 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	23d	1	1.39mi
975 NW Flagler Ave Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,800	$2.28	23d	1	1.39mi
975 NW Flagler Ave #307 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,750	$2.24	23d	1	1.39mi
3617 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	802	$1,595	$1.99	23d	1	1.39mi
3751 NW Willow Creek Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$2,900	$1.98	23d	1	1.40mi
875 NW Flagler Ave #302 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1082	$2,900	$2.68	14d	1	1.41mi
875 NW Flagler Ave #404 Stuart, FL	2.0	2.0	1183	$5,250	$4.44	23d	1	1.41mi
3781 NW Willow Creek Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$2,700	$2.03	23d	1	1.41mi
3655 NW Adriatic Ln #307 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,595	$2.04	14d	1	1.44mi
3614 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,550	$1.98	23d	1	1.44mi
3620 NW Adriatic Ln #306 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	781	$1,595	$2.04	23d	1	1.44mi
3605 NW Adriatic Ln Unit 7-103 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,850	$1.73	14d	1	1.44mi
3663 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,195	$1.75	14d	1	1.44mi
3805 NW Mediterranean Ln Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,975	$1.85	14d	1	1.44mi
3628 NW Adriatic Ln Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,875	$1.76	14d	1	1.44mi
3690 NW Mediterranean Ln Unit 12-305 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,850	$1.73	23d	1	1.44mi
3769 NW Mediterranean Ln Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	795	$1,700	$2.14	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $529 · $6,348/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $154,900 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    This lovely home has been exquisitely remodeled with a designers touch. Featuring waiscoting in the entryway, wood tone, waterproof luxury vinyl flooring thru out and modern light fixtures. A wonderful corner space where the natural light filters in through the impact windows. The kitchen has been opened to the dining area and boasts granite counter tops, stainless appliances, white wooden cabinets and recessed lighting. With two bedrooms and two full bathrooms, the primary is an en suite featuring beautifully detailed tile work and a step in shower. Enjoy a bit of nature from the lanai accessible from both the living room and primary bedroom. Vista del Lago active, social community, an oasis of ponds with catch and release fishing, mature trees nestled in a scenic and convenient North River Shores location. Live music, boutique shoppes and so many dining options in nearby historic waterfront Stuart and Jensen Beach with the ocean just a causeway away. Enjoy the Florida life!

17. 2026-04-06
    listed $165,000 Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    This lovely home has been exquisitely remodeled with a designers touch. Featuring waiscoting in the entryway, wood tone, waterproof luxury vinyl flooring thru out and modern light fixtures. A wonderful corner space where the natural light filters in through the impact windows. The kitchen has been opened to the dining area and boasts granite counter tops, stainless appliances, white wooden cabinets and recessed lighting. With two bedrooms and two full bathrooms, the primary is an en suite featuring beautifully detailed tile work and a step in shower. Enjoy a bit of nature from the lanai accessible from both the living room and primary bedroom. Vista del Lago active, social community, an oasis of ponds with catch and release fishing, mature trees nestled in a scenic and convenient North River Shores location. Live music, boutique shoppes and so many dining options in nearby historic waterfront Stuart and Jensen Beach with the ocean just a causeway away. Enjoy the Florida life!

18. 2017-05-11
    soldstatus $66,000
19. 2017-04-27
    historical
20. 2017-03-14
    price $79,500
21. 2017-03-14
    status Active
22. 2017-03-13
    historical
23. 2017-01-14
    listed $82,900 Active
24. 1978-08-01
    soldstatus $35,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $477 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$809/yr (+$67/mo · 169.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$477
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − HOA: −$6,348
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$123
• After-tax cash flow: $1,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — North River Shores

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #4906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North River Shores, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,737
• Household income: $62,533
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1408.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.08%
• Current HPI: 349.7061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+331.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $154,900 MCRTC
• 2026-04-06 Listed $165,000 MCRTC
• 2017-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-27 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2017-03-14 Price Changed $79,500 MCRTC
• 2017-03-14 Relisted — MCRTC
• 2017-03-13 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2017-01-14 Listed $82,900 MCRTC
• 1978-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $477 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.