Aria Plan · North Fort Myers, FL 33917

$319,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily · 959 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 959 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $319,990

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan (Aria); Single-family residence (plan-based description)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,672 square feet
• Exterior features: Property located at 20094 Fiddlewood Ave, North Fort Myers, FL 33917

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan: Aria)

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $344,432.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,846/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 775% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 959 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 959 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,432
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20056 Sweetbay Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,672 (0%)	4mo	$278,500	$167	88
2036 Pigeon Plum Way	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (-10%)	4mo	$272,000	$182	65
20736 Mystic Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+2%)	3mo	$350,000	$206	61
20686 Dennisport Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-3%)	2mo	$460,000	$284	60
2136 Pigeon Plum Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+9%)	14mo	$346,900	$190	59
20605 Long Pond Rd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,805 (+8%)	6mo	$410,000	$227	57
2411 Palo Duro Blvd	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,814 (+8%)	0mo	$488,000	$269	53
20502 Plumwood Loop	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (-10%)	18mo	$330,000	$220	53
20526 Plumwood Loop	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (-10%)	18mo	$285,000	$190	51
1950 Corona Del Sire Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-4%)	11mo	$250,000	$156	51
2521 Palo Duro Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-2%)	20mo	$500,000	$304	47
1941 Palo Duro Blvd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-13%)	17mo	$281,000	$194	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-73,116
• Equity at exit: $51,356

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-88,557
• Equity at exit: $29,780

Cash invested: $96,441 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33917

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 841
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,846 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,806
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,166/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,172

Max offer price $307,246

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,108
• Closing costs: $10,333
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20038 Fiddlewood Ave North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,999	$1.32	19d	1	0.11mi
20056 Sweetbay Dr North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$4,000	$2.39	23d	1	0.20mi
20559 Long Pond Rd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,295	$1.27	23d	1	0.40mi
1900 Corona del Sire Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1449	$2,400	$1.66	23d	1	0.64mi
2130 Rio Nuevo Dr Unit 1546442P North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$4,682	$3.75	14d	1	0.65mi
2481 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	21d	1	0.67mi
2481 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	16d	1	0.67mi
10401 Circle Pine Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1294	$3,000	$2.32	23d	1	0.71mi
19621 N Tamiami Trl North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,300	$1.08	23d	1	0.74mi
1670 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1604	$2,700	$1.68	3d	1	0.75mi
2300 Valparaiso Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1237	$4,000	$3.23	23d	1	0.79mi
2300 Valparaiso Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1237	$3,000	$2.43	16d	1	0.79mi
20728 Tisbury Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2133	$5,000	$2.34	14d	1	0.80mi
20919 Villareal Way North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$4,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.82mi
19477 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,499	$1.03	2d	1	0.94mi
19421 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,499	$1.25	2d	1	0.97mi
19414 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,499	$1.20	2d	1	0.99mi
20333 Camino Torcido Loop North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,800	$2.08	23d	1	1.01mi
20461 Camino Torcido Loop North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,250	$1.23	23d	1	1.11mi
19152 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,499	$1.20	2d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 959 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 958 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 957 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 955 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,990 Active 951 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 949 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $319,990 Active 943 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $319,990 Active 942 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,294
• − Property taxes: −$5,166
• − Insurance: −$3,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,732
• − Management: −$2,732
• − Depreciation: −$10,020
• Taxable loss: −$9,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,164
• After-tax cash flow: $-920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,380
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.28%
• Current HPI: 282.2895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B