55 Lockhart Ln · Lillington, NC 27546

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Land public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2006 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This rural 3 bedroom 2 bath ranch home is conveniently located to major highways. Private wooded lot. Prop is owned by the US Dept. of HUD, Case #387-044171, IE, Subject to Appraisal, Seller makes no representations or warranties as to the property condition, HUD Homes are sold AS-IS, EHO, Seller may contribute up to 3%for buyer's closing costs upon buyer request.

Key facts

• Private wooded lot
• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 2006

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.0% in Lillington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lillington-Shawtown Elementary (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 694 students, 100% FRL); Harnett Central Middle (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #323 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 1,024 students, 63% FRL); Harnett Central High (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 1,474 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 51% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 829 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.83%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-211
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $32,838
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27546

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 829
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,788 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
299 Emilies Crossing Way Lillington, NC	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,649	$1.25	14d	1	0.49mi
101 Laura Ln Lillington, NC	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,290	$1.13	23d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-23
   listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,376
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$570
• After-tax cash flow: $4,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lillington

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 21,419
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 21,419
• Household income: $66,746
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.35%
• Current HPI: 198.2885
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $160,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,230 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.