38276 St Croix Ct · Prairieville, LA 70737

$268,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,617 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Built 2011 0.27 ac lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $271k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is better than new!! Process of getting new roof before closing. Replacing because of hail and wind damage. New air conditioner and heating system 3.4 ton unit. New tankless hot water heater installed. Wooden plant boxes for vegetable gardens or kitchen herbs. Wood floors in living areas, tile in kitchen and baths. Super clean and very updated. Must see to appreciate but do not wait too long this one will not last! Great location for children end of cul-de-sac. Friendly white Bunny has set up house keeping on St. Croix Ct. NEW ROOF INSTALLED APRIL 2026

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Tile in kitchen
• New air conditioner

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW AIR CONDITIONER
• NEW HEATING SYSTEM
• NEW TANKLESS HOT WATER HEATER
• WOOD FLOORS
• TILE IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,442 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,012
• List price: $268,600
• Delta: -0.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38204 Zilda St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,603 (-1%)	7mo	$288,000	$180	79
14450 Essen Terrace Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+5%)	1mo	$288,900	$171	78
38330 Duplessis Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,541 (-5%)	1mo	$289,000	$188	76
14148 Martinique Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+1%)	2mo	$262,000	$161	75
14224 Parkview Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-1%)	5mo	$230,000	$144	69
14338 Parkmeadow Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-3%)	5mo	$289,900	$184	65
15099 Woodstone Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+10%)	1mo	$305,000	$172	60
37428 S Park Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,561 (-4%)	6mo	$249,900	$160	60
13529 Chase St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+3%)	2mo	$285,000	$171	58
14446 Ridgewood Ave	0.54mi	3/3.0	1,750 (+8%)	4mo	$265,000	$151	54
14391 Ridgewood Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-14%)	4mo	$250,000	$180	48
37446 E Hillside Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-13%)	2mo	$191,000	$136	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-50,111
• Equity at exit: $40,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-50,711
• Equity at exit: $23,224

Cash invested: $75,208 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 567
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,409
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,360/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,195

Max offer price $248,959

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $41	-5% $-35	+0% $-111	+5% $-187	+10% $-263
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-192	+0% $-111	+5% $-30	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-43	base $-111	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,150
• Closing costs: $8,058
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15279 Oak Heritage Ave Prairieville, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1331	$2,243	$1.69	15d	7	1.31mi
14086 Airline Hwy Gonzales, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$1,779	$1.52	15d	1	1.35mi
38035 Post Office Rd Unit 4B Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,000	$1.40	44d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $268,600 Pending 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $268,600 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $264,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $264,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $264,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $264,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-04-21
   price $264,900 568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (568 chars)

   This home is better than new!! Process of getting new roof before closing. Replacing because of hail and wind damage. New air conditioner and heating system 3.4 ton unit. New tankless hot water heater installed. Wooden plant boxes for vegetable gardens or kitchen herbs. Wood floors in living areas, tile in kitchen and baths. Super clean and very updated. Must see to appreciate but do not wait too long this one will not last! Great location for children end of cul-de-sac. Friendly white Bunny has set up house keeping on St. Croix Ct. NEW ROOF INSTALLED APRIL 2026

8. 2026-04-21
   price $264,900 568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (568 chars)

   This home is better than new!! Process of getting new roof before closing. Replacing because of hail and wind damage. New air conditioner and heating system 3.4 ton unit. New tankless hot water heater installed. Wooden plant boxes for vegetable gardens or kitchen herbs. Wood floors in living areas, tile in kitchen and baths. Super clean and very updated. Must see to appreciate but do not wait too long this one will not last! Great location for children end of cul-de-sac. Friendly white Bunny has set up house keeping on St. Croix Ct. NEW ROOF INSTALLED APRIL 2026

9. 2026-03-24
   price $269,900 568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (568 chars)

   This home is better than new!! Process of getting new roof before closing. Replacing because of hail and wind damage. New air conditioner and heating system 3.4 ton unit. New tankless hot water heater installed. Wooden plant boxes for vegetable gardens or kitchen herbs. Wood floors in living areas, tile in kitchen and baths. Super clean and very updated. Must see to appreciate but do not wait too long this one will not last! Great location for children end of cul-de-sac. Friendly white Bunny has set up house keeping on St. Croix Ct. NEW ROOF INSTALLED APRIL 2026

10. 2026-03-24
    price $269,900 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    This home is better than new!! Process of getting new roof before closing. Replacing because of hail and wind damage. New air conditioner and heating system 3.4 ton unit. New tankless hot water heater installed. Wooden plant boxes for vegetable gardens or kitchen herbs. Wood floors in living areas, tile in kitchen and baths. Super clean and very updated. Must see to appreciate but do not wait too long this one will not last! Great location for children end of cul-de-sac. Friendly white Bunny has set up house keeping on St. Croix Ct. NEW ROOF INSTALLED APRIL 2026

11. 2026-03-10
    listed $274,900 Active 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    This home is better than new!! Process of getting new roof before closing. Replacing because of hail and wind damage. New air conditioner and heating system 3.4 ton unit. New tankless hot water heater installed. Wooden plant boxes for vegetable gardens or kitchen herbs. Wood floors in living areas, tile in kitchen and baths. Super clean and very updated. Must see to appreciate but do not wait too long this one will not last! Great location for children end of cul-de-sac. Friendly white Bunny has set up house keeping on St. Croix Ct. NEW ROOF INSTALLED APRIL 2026

12. 2026-03-10
    listed $274,900 Active 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    This home is better than new!! Process of getting new roof before closing. Replacing because of hail and wind damage. New air conditioner and heating system 3.4 ton unit. New tankless hot water heater installed. Wooden plant boxes for vegetable gardens or kitchen herbs. Wood floors in living areas, tile in kitchen and baths. Super clean and very updated. Must see to appreciate but do not wait too long this one will not last! Great location for children end of cul-de-sac. Friendly white Bunny has set up house keeping on St. Croix Ct. NEW ROOF INSTALLED APRIL 2026

13. 2020-10-19
    soldstatus $219,900
14. 2020-10-16
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2020-09-02
    status Pending
16. 2020-08-21
    listed $219,900 Active
17. 2020-08-21
    listed $219,900
18. 2012-02-17
    soldstatus
19. 2011-11-12
    listed $158,500
20. 2011-11-12
    listed $158,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,360 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,360 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,046
• − Property taxes: −$2,360
• − Insurance: −$1,343
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,814
• Taxable loss: −$6,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+67.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $264,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $264,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $269,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $269,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $274,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $274,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2020-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $219,900 Public Records
• 2020-10-16 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2020-09-02 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2020-08-21 Listed $219,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2020-08-21 Listed $219,900 GBRMLS
• 2012-02-17 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2011-11-12 Listed $158,500 GBRMLS
• 2011-11-12 Listed $158,500 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,360 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.