443 Mesquite · Cedar Point, TX 77351

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2020 2,099 sqft lot $125/sqft · 19% below area Est $167k · 19% under $51/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 443 Mesquite in Livingston, TX! This charming two-story home offers 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a versatile open floor plan. The inviting kitchen is highlighted by a brand-new stove, abundant counter space, and sleek granite countertops, making it perfect for both everyday meals and entertaining. The first floor features durable tile flooring, while the large primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with ample space. In-house utility room and a one-car garage. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, or simply unwinding in privacy. Nestled in a secure, manned-gate community, residents enjoy peace of mind along with close proximity to the natural beauty and recreation of Lake Livingston. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a full-time residence, this home combines comfort, convenience, and location in one desirable package.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Tile flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BRAND-NEW STOVE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• MANNED-GATE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,509 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,524
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -15.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Plum Tree	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+7%)	4mo	$119,000	$103	79
609 Cedar Point Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,060 (-2%)	7mo	$149,900	$141	74
149 Curry St	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-6%)	7mo	$129,000	$128	72
165 Black Walnut	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (0%)	23mo	$155,000	$144	66
512 Plum Tree	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	19mo	$199,900	$167	65
233 Mesquite	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-6%)	21mo	$80,000	$78	62
215 Sandy Ridge Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,116 (+3%)	4mo	$185,000	$166	61
629 Cedar Point Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,004 (-7%)	15mo	$145,000	$144	60
486 Mockingbird Hls	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+9%)	20mo	$275,000	$234	34
312 Sandy Ridge Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-13%)	19mo	$34,900	$37	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-14,546
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,010
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,527/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,298

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $135,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 90 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $140,000 897-char remark

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    Welcome to 443 Mesquite in Livingston, TX! This charming two-story home offers 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a versatile open floor plan. The inviting kitchen is highlighted by a brand-new stove, abundant counter space, and sleek granite countertops, making it perfect for both everyday meals and entertaining. The first floor features durable tile flooring, while the large primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with ample space. In-house utility room and a one-car garage. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, or simply unwinding in privacy. Nestled in a secure, manned-gate community, residents enjoy peace of mind along with close proximity to the natural beauty and recreation of Lake Livingston. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a full-time residence, this home combines comfort, convenience, and location in one desirable package.

19. 2026-03-30
    price $145,000 897-char remark

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    Welcome to 443 Mesquite in Livingston, TX! This charming two-story home offers 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a versatile open floor plan. The inviting kitchen is highlighted by a brand-new stove, abundant counter space, and sleek granite countertops, making it perfect for both everyday meals and entertaining. The first floor features durable tile flooring, while the large primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with ample space. In-house utility room and a one-car garage. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, or simply unwinding in privacy. Nestled in a secure, manned-gate community, residents enjoy peace of mind along with close proximity to the natural beauty and recreation of Lake Livingston. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a full-time residence, this home combines comfort, convenience, and location in one desirable package.

20. 2026-03-01
    listed $150,000 Active 897-char remark

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    Welcome to 443 Mesquite in Livingston, TX! This charming two-story home offers 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a versatile open floor plan. The inviting kitchen is highlighted by a brand-new stove, abundant counter space, and sleek granite countertops, making it perfect for both everyday meals and entertaining. The first floor features durable tile flooring, while the large primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with ample space. In-house utility room and a one-car garage. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, or simply unwinding in privacy. Nestled in a secure, manned-gate community, residents enjoy peace of mind along with close proximity to the natural beauty and recreation of Lake Livingston. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a full-time residence, this home combines comfort, convenience, and location in one desirable package.

21. 2026-03-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (897 chars)

    Welcome to 443 Mesquite in Livingston, TX! This charming two-story home offers 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a versatile open floor plan. The inviting kitchen is highlighted by a brand-new stove, abundant counter space, and sleek granite countertops, making it perfect for both everyday meals and entertaining. The first floor features durable tile flooring, while the large primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with ample space. In-house utility room and a one-car garage. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, or simply unwinding in privacy. Nestled in a secure, manned-gate community, residents enjoy peace of mind along with close proximity to the natural beauty and recreation of Lake Livingston. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway or a full-time residence, this home combines comfort, convenience, and location in one desirable package.

22. 2026-02-02
    price $150,000
23. 2025-12-16
    listed $155,000 Active
24. 2025-12-16
    historical
25. 2025-12-15
    price $155,000
26. 2025-11-11
    price $160,000
27. 2025-10-17
    price $165,000
28. 2025-10-03
    listed $170,000 Active
29. 2020-12-10
    historical
30. 2020-05-07
    listed $136,482

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,527 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,527 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,527
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,385
• − Management: −$1,385
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$183
• After-tax cash flow: $1,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cedar Point

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1509
• US rank: #25794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Point, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-05-07 Listed $136,482 HARMLS

Property tax history

+41.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,527 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.