1748 Duskwood Dr · Bear Creek Ranch, TX 75146

$214,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2021 7,222 sqft lot Est $299k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is a 4 bedroom 2 bathroom

Key facts

• 7,222 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $214k).
• Recommended offer: $208k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Main El (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 603 students, 85% FRL); Lancaster Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 1,007 students, 84% FRL); Lancaster H S (math 14% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,250 students, 84% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,609/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1462% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,065 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,468
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1445 Elm Forest Way	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,897 (+7%)	4mo	$323,490	$171	77
1942 Duskwood Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,832 (+3%)	0mo	$309,900	$169	76
1707 Eagle River Trl	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,599 (-10%)	6mo	$279,900	$175	67
2052 Fair Weather Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (+4%)	1mo	$273,000	$148	64
1813 Overlook Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (+12%)	1mo	$285,000	$144	63
1901 Duskwood Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-7%)	12mo	$317,400	$193	60
2039 Fair Weather Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (+6%)	8mo	$300,000	$160	58
1933 Rainwater Way	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,917 (+8%)	8mo	$309,900	$162	57
1857 Eagle River Trl	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,970 (+11%)	10mo	$295,000	$150	55
1841 Pioneer Way	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-13%)	10mo	$270,000	$176	49
1944 Newport Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,978 (+12%)	11mo	$289,999	$147	48
1937 Duskwood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-14%)	8mo	$279,000	$183	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $44,276
• Equity at exit: $103,465

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $133,574
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $60,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75146

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,609 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,125
• Tax from tax record: −$663 /mo · $7,962/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,377

Max offer price $214,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,625
• Closing costs: $6,435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1766 Pioneer Way Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,195	$1.18	43d	1	0.19mi
1840 Hickory Woods Rd Unit NA Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,250	$1.54	7d	1	0.47mi
4127 Passage Way Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	1979	$2,300	$1.16	10d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-15
   listed $214,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,962 · $663/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,962 · $663/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,015
• − Property taxes: −$7,962
• − Insurance: −$1,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,504
• − Management: −$2,504
• − Depreciation: −$6,240
• Taxable loss: −$994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$239
• After-tax cash flow: $2,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826670
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,275
• Composite: 21.41/100
• National rank: #8349
• State rank: #714 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bear Creek Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bear Creek Ranch, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,097
• Household income: $68,071
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1462.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% White 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 316.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $214,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,962 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.