22431 Douglas Ct · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$240,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · Land · 100 Days on market

Built 2025 5,000 sqft lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $237k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside this charming new residence at 22431 Douglas Court in New Caney, TX. This single-story home is built for easy movement, featuring a bright and open layout where every room is conveniently located on one level. Key Features: • 3 comfortable bedrooms, including a premier owner's suite tucked into its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms finished with modern fixtures and quality materials • 1,548 square feet of living space thoughtfully arranged on a single floor • Open-concept main hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction with fresh finishes and high-quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming New Caney community with a friendly, residential atmosphere • Excellent proximity to local parks and green spaces for outdoor relaxation and fun • A perfect residential setting that balances a quiet retreat with access to daily conveniences The interior is designed for a natural flow, with a central gathering space that brings the main living areas together for effortless daily life. Because the owner's suite is situated in its own private corner of the home, it provides a quiet sanctuary separate from the secondary bedrooms. These additional rooms offer plenty of flexibility, whether you need space for guests, a hobby room, or a dedicated home office, all without the need for stairs. This move-in-ready. .. MLS# 74295225

Key facts

• Ample cabinets
• Bay window
• Private entry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• PLENTIFUL COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINETS
• PRIVATE ENTRY
• BAY WINDOW
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $241k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-240/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Woodbranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $188,058 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,742
• List price: $240,990
• Delta: 1.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-45,529
• Equity at exit: $35,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-61,498
• Equity at exit: $20,836

Cash invested: $67,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,264
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,906

Max offer price $237,462

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,248
• Closing costs: $7,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21811 Hickory Springs Ct New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,700	$1.01	24d	1	0.68mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $240,990 Pending 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $240,990 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $240,990 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   price $240,990 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $244,990 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $244,990 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-05-19
   price $247,990 1486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

   Step inside this charming new residence at 22431 Douglas Court in New Caney, TX. This single-story home is built for easy movement, featuring a bright and open layout where every room is conveniently located on one level. Key Features: • 3 comfortable bedrooms, including a premier owner's suite tucked into its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms finished with modern fixtures and quality materials • 1,548 square feet of living space thoughtfully arranged on a single floor • Open-concept main hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction with fresh finishes and high-quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming New Caney community with a friendly, residential atmosphere • Excellent proximity to local parks and green spaces for outdoor relaxation and fun • A perfect residential setting that balances a quiet retreat with access to daily conveniences The interior is designed for a natural flow, with a central gathering space that brings the main living areas together for effortless daily life. Because the owner's suite is situated in its own private corner of the home, it provides a quiet sanctuary separate from the secondary bedrooms. These additional rooms offer plenty of flexibility, whether you need space for guests, a hobby room, or a dedicated home office, all without the need for stairs. This move-in-ready. .. MLS# 74295225

8. 2026-05-18
   price $247,990 766-char remark

   Show marketing remark (766 chars)

   READY NOW! Introducing the Magnolia: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings.

9. 2026-04-08
   price $252,990 1486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

   Step inside this charming new residence at 22431 Douglas Court in New Caney, TX. This single-story home is built for easy movement, featuring a bright and open layout where every room is conveniently located on one level. Key Features: • 3 comfortable bedrooms, including a premier owner's suite tucked into its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms finished with modern fixtures and quality materials • 1,548 square feet of living space thoughtfully arranged on a single floor • Open-concept main hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction with fresh finishes and high-quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming New Caney community with a friendly, residential atmosphere • Excellent proximity to local parks and green spaces for outdoor relaxation and fun • A perfect residential setting that balances a quiet retreat with access to daily conveniences The interior is designed for a natural flow, with a central gathering space that brings the main living areas together for effortless daily life. Because the owner's suite is situated in its own private corner of the home, it provides a quiet sanctuary separate from the secondary bedrooms. These additional rooms offer plenty of flexibility, whether you need space for guests, a hobby room, or a dedicated home office, all without the need for stairs. This move-in-ready. .. MLS# 74295225

10. 2026-04-07
    price $252,990 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    READY NOW! Introducing the Magnolia: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings.

11. 2026-03-03
    price $256,990 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Step inside this charming new residence at 22431 Douglas Court in New Caney, TX. This single-story home is built for easy movement, featuring a bright and open layout where every room is conveniently located on one level. Key Features: • 3 comfortable bedrooms, including a premier owner's suite tucked into its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms finished with modern fixtures and quality materials • 1,548 square feet of living space thoughtfully arranged on a single floor • Open-concept main hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction with fresh finishes and high-quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming New Caney community with a friendly, residential atmosphere • Excellent proximity to local parks and green spaces for outdoor relaxation and fun • A perfect residential setting that balances a quiet retreat with access to daily conveniences The interior is designed for a natural flow, with a central gathering space that brings the main living areas together for effortless daily life. Because the owner's suite is situated in its own private corner of the home, it provides a quiet sanctuary separate from the secondary bedrooms. These additional rooms offer plenty of flexibility, whether you need space for guests, a hobby room, or a dedicated home office, all without the need for stairs. This move-in-ready. .. MLS# 74295225

12. 2026-03-02
    price $256,990 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    READY NOW! Introducing the Magnolia: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings.

13. 2026-02-24
    listed $265,990 Active 1486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1486 chars)

    Step inside this charming new residence at 22431 Douglas Court in New Caney, TX. This single-story home is built for easy movement, featuring a bright and open layout where every room is conveniently located on one level. Key Features: • 3 comfortable bedrooms, including a premier owner's suite tucked into its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms finished with modern fixtures and quality materials • 1,548 square feet of living space thoughtfully arranged on a single floor • Open-concept main hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction with fresh finishes and high-quality craftsmanship throughout Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming New Caney community with a friendly, residential atmosphere • Excellent proximity to local parks and green spaces for outdoor relaxation and fun • A perfect residential setting that balances a quiet retreat with access to daily conveniences The interior is designed for a natural flow, with a central gathering space that brings the main living areas together for effortless daily life. Because the owner's suite is situated in its own private corner of the home, it provides a quiet sanctuary separate from the secondary bedrooms. These additional rooms offer plenty of flexibility, whether you need space for guests, a hobby room, or a dedicated home office, all without the need for stairs. This move-in-ready. .. MLS# 74295225

14. 2026-02-23
    listed $265,990 Active 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    READY NOW! Introducing the Magnolia: This home has a 3-bedroom, 2-full bathroom home. This home boasts an open-concept living space that seamlessly merges the family room, dining area, and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for entertainment and relaxation. The kitchen has plentiful countertops and ample cabinets, making meal preparation effortless. Indulge in the ultimate comfort of the owner's suite, accessed through a private entry off the family room. The owner's bedroom maximizes space and natural light with a bay window, while the spa-like bath retreat features a walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet, providing ample storage for all your belongings. For additional entertainment space, the covered patio is the perfect venue for outdoor gatherings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,410 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,313/yr (+$276/mo · 301.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,499
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$1,205
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,011
• Taxable loss: −$4,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $252,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $252,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $256,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $265,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Listed $265,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.