2411 Robley Dr · Lafayette, LA 70503

$154,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1984 3,049 sqft lot $233/sqft · 43% above area Est $236k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom townhome in the Arrowhead subdivision offers a modern, move-in-ready living experience. The interior features a blend of new LVP flooring throughout the living areas and granite countertops in both the kitchen and bathrooms. Recent upgrades provide added peace of mind, including stainless steel appliances, a convection stove, a new HVAC system, and fresh paint throughout. A standout feature is the recently remodeled exterior shop/office space, perfect for a dedicated workspace. The property is complete with a fully enclosed backyard featuring a new fence.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 25 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-811/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Lafayette — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#63 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Lafayette Parish (urban): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #19 of 98 in LA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,585 units permitted in Lafayette Parish in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,326 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,747
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -34.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-32,367
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-45,263
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70503

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $937/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $142,958

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $154,900 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   This 2-bedroom townhome in the Arrowhead subdivision offers a modern, move-in-ready living experience. The interior features a blend of new LVP flooring throughout the living areas and granite countertops in both the kitchen and bathrooms. Recent upgrades provide added peace of mind, including stainless steel appliances, a convection stove, a new HVAC system, and fresh paint throughout. A standout feature is the recently remodeled exterior shop/office space, perfect for a dedicated workspace. The property is complete with a fully enclosed backyard featuring a new fence.

2. 2026-05-13
   price $160,000 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   This 2-bedroom townhome in the Arrowhead subdivision offers a modern, move-in-ready living experience. The interior features a blend of new LVP flooring throughout the living areas and granite countertops in both the kitchen and bathrooms. Recent upgrades provide added peace of mind, including stainless steel appliances, a convection stove, a new HVAC system, and fresh paint throughout. A standout feature is the recently remodeled exterior shop/office space, perfect for a dedicated workspace. The property is complete with a fully enclosed backyard featuring a new fence.

3. 2026-04-29
   listed $169,000 Active 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   This 2-bedroom townhome in the Arrowhead subdivision offers a modern, move-in-ready living experience. The interior features a blend of new LVP flooring throughout the living areas and granite countertops in both the kitchen and bathrooms. Recent upgrades provide added peace of mind, including stainless steel appliances, a convection stove, a new HVAC system, and fresh paint throughout. A standout feature is the recently remodeled exterior shop/office space, perfect for a dedicated workspace. The property is complete with a fully enclosed backyard featuring a new fence.

4. 2006-05-26
   listed $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $937 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $937 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$937
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$3,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$857
• After-tax cash flow: $46/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200870
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $50,238
• Composite: 36.15/100
• National rank: #4741
• State rank: #19 of 98 in LA

Livability — Lafayette

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #8133

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lafayette Parish · 207,544 people
• City population: 158,114
• Metro: Lafayette, LA
• Population (ZIP): 28,643
• Household income: $94,688
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 769.0

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 280,930 people
• By 2030: 301,092 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 339,456 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 375,156 · +33.5%
• By 2075: 451,672 · +60.8%
• By 2100: 497,203 · +77.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 23% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.1pp no change · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.65%
• Current HPI: 158.7094
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.36%
• Metro: Lafayette, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+10.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $154,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $160,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $169,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2006-05-26 Listed $139,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $937 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.