1920 Sunset Dr · Newcastle, CA 95658

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $235k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Castle City, one of the most sought-after 55+ mobile home parks. This TRIPLE WIDE 3 bed/2 bath home boasts the best location in the park situated on the larger of the two ponds! A corner end lot, the space offers expansive parking with TWO carports, providing space for 4+ cars and additional overflow/ guest parking as well as direct pond access! The 1984 home is lightly updated with beautiful, engineered wood floor in the living room, an electric fireplace for ambience, and recently reroofed! The kitchen also includes a breakfast area with lake views! TWO covered decks offer space for relaxation and enjoyment as well as the outdoor, recently painted gazebo! Two large storage shed

Key facts

• Covered decks
• Community pool
• Direct pond access

Tags

• DIRECT POND ACCESS
• COVERED DECKS
• OUTDOOR GAZEBO
• COMMUNITY POOL
• WALKING TRAILS
• COMMUNITY GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Interior access to parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Individual gas meter with natural gas connected; 220 volts in laundry; Public sewer; Water from district
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Triple wide; Built in 1984
• Construction: Shingle/composition roof; Brick skirting; Silvercrest manufactured home
• Exterior features: Corner lot; See remarks for lot details; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Electric cooktop; Hood over range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Breakfast area; Pantry cabinet; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub and separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room ceiling; Electric fireplace; Covered deck with railings and porch steps; Carpeted porch area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 1.6% in Newcastle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#792 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.15%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,878
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1920 Sunset Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,766 (0%)	0mo	$235,000	$133	100
1982 Hillcrest Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-2%)	15mo	$210,000	$121	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $7,176
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $64,764
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95658

• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,140

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $872	-5% $790	+0% $709	+5% $628	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $469	-5% $589	+0% $709	+5% $829	+10% $949
Rate	-1.0pp $828	-0.5pp $769	base $709	+0.5pp $648	+1.0pp $586

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,916
• − Management: −$2,916
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $5,121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,229
• After-tax cash flow: $7,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newcastle

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #792
• US rank: #22660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newcastle, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,197

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -292.40%
• Current HPI: 288.3247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B