12116 Lake Blvd · Redding, CA 96003

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1958 5,227 sqft lot $101/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity Awaits in Redding! Currently this property can be a commercial or residential property. The framing for the trusses and the roof were both recently replaced in the past year, also it has new interior drywall installed, and has an existing shower and utility setup, much of the groundwork has already begun. Bring your contractor and imagination to transform this space. The county would like to see installation of a fire suppression system, installation of solar. The property's layout provides flexibility for reconfiguration, making it ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity. This is your chance to create value in a growing North State community.

Key facts

• New interior drywall
• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1958

Tags

• FRAMING FOR THE TRUSSES
• NEW INTERIOR DRYWALL
• GROUNDWORK HAS ALREADY BEGUN
• INSTALLATION OF SOLAR
• TWO BEDROOM WINDOWS REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Lake (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #816 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 616 students, 74% FRL); Central Valley High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gateway Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.65%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,002
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -60.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12097 Romar St	0.11mi	2/1.0	960 (-3%)	7mo	$251,285	$262	84
3486 Hiatt Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+6%)	1mo	$227,500	$215	59
17777 Irish Rd	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+13%)	11mo	$305,000	$272	51
1649 Lake Blvd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-6%)	8mo	$218,000	$233	48
1941 Herbscenta Ln	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (+13%)	9mo	$311,000	$278	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $25,296
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $90,453
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,269/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $850

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $631	-5% $603	+0% $575	+5% $546	+10% $518
Rent	-10% $450	-5% $512	+0% $575	+5% $637	+10% $699
Rate	-1.0pp $625	-0.5pp $600	base $575	+0.5pp $549	+1.0pp $522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1477 Mishka Ct Apt 3 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,225	$1.53	23d	1	0.83mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	46d	1	1.03mi
4288 Bradley Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	23d	1	1.19mi
3717 Saint Nicholas Ave Unit 5 Redding, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,150	$1.77	46d	1	1.38mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	46d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-23
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $125,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
19. 2026-04-03
    price $125,000 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Opportunity Awaits in Redding! Currently this property can be a commercial or residential property. The framing for the trusses and the roof were both recently replaced in the past year, also it has new interior drywall installed, and has an existing shower and utility setup, much of the groundwork has already begun. Bring your contractor and imagination to transform this space. The county would like to see installation of a fire suppression system, installation of solar. The property's layout provides flexibility for reconfiguration, making it ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity. This is your chance to create value in a growing North State community.

20. 2026-02-24
    listed $149,900 Active 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    Opportunity Awaits in Redding! Currently this property can be a commercial or residential property. The framing for the trusses and the roof were both recently replaced in the past year, also it has new interior drywall installed, and has an existing shower and utility setup, much of the groundwork has already begun. Bring your contractor and imagination to transform this space. The county would like to see installation of a fire suppression system, installation of solar. The property's layout provides flexibility for reconfiguration, making it ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity. This is your chance to create value in a growing North State community.

21. 2024-12-12
    soldstatus $111,000 Closed 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home nestled on a 0.12-acre lot in the heart of Redding, California. With 976 square feet of living space, this property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to invest in a home with great potential. Septic system, public water, and PG & E electric. Located in a convenient Redding neighborhood, you'll enjoy easy access to local amenities, schools, and parks. Whether you're looking to make this your forever home or a valuable addition to your investment portfolio, this property is a must-see.

22. 2024-12-12
    soldstatus $111,000

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home nestled on a 0.12-acre lot in the heart of Redding, California. With 976 square feet of living space, this property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to invest in a home with great potential. Septic system, public water, and PG & E electric. Located in a convenient Redding neighborhood, you'll enjoy easy access to local amenities, schools, and parks. Whether you're looking to make this your forever home or a valuable addition to your investment portfolio, this property is a must-see.

23. 2024-11-16
    status Pending 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home nestled on a 0.12-acre lot in the heart of Redding, California. With 976 square feet of living space, this property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to invest in a home with great potential. Septic system, public water, and PG & E electric. Located in a convenient Redding neighborhood, you'll enjoy easy access to local amenities, schools, and parks. Whether you're looking to make this your forever home or a valuable addition to your investment portfolio, this property is a must-see.

24. 2024-08-07
    price $126,000 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home nestled on a 0.12-acre lot in the heart of Redding, California. With 976 square feet of living space, this property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to invest in a home with great potential. Septic system, public water, and PG & E electric. Located in a convenient Redding neighborhood, you'll enjoy easy access to local amenities, schools, and parks. Whether you're looking to make this your forever home or a valuable addition to your investment portfolio, this property is a must-see.

25. 2024-07-09
    listed $131,000 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home nestled on a 0.12-acre lot in the heart of Redding, California. With 976 square feet of living space, this property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to invest in a home with great potential. Septic system, public water, and PG & E electric. Located in a convenient Redding neighborhood, you'll enjoy easy access to local amenities, schools, and parks. Whether you're looking to make this your forever home or a valuable addition to your investment portfolio, this property is a must-see.

26. 2024-07-08
    status Active
27. 2024-06-10
    price $131,000
28. 2024-04-24
    price $134,000
29. 2024-03-25
    price $143,000
30. 2024-03-01
    status Active
31. 2024-02-28
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2024-02-27
    status Pending
33. 2024-02-14
    listed $153,000 Active
34. 2021-10-27
    soldstatus $128,500
35. 2021-10-25
    soldstatus $128,500
36. 2021-05-03
    listed $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,269
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $5,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,350
• After-tax cash flow: $5,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $125,000 SAOR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $149,900 SAOR
• 2024-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-12 Sold (MLS) $111,000 SAOR
• 2024-11-16 Pending — SAOR
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $126,000 SAOR
• 2024-07-09 Listed $131,000 SAOR
• 2024-07-08 Relisted — SAOR
• 2024-06-10 Price Changed $131,000 SAOR
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $134,000 SAOR
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $143,000 SAOR
• 2024-03-01 Relisted — SAOR
• 2024-02-28 Contingent — SAOR
• 2024-02-27 Pending — SAOR
• 2024-02-14 Listed $153,000 SAOR
• 2021-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records
• 2021-10-25 Sold (MLS) $128,500 SAOR
• 2021-05-03 Listed $130,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,269 · -13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.