548 Timbercrest Cir SE · Bolivia, NC 28422

$275,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,549 sqft · Townhouse public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,178 sqft lot Est $271k · at est. $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Autumn Trail, a new construction community offering exceptional townhome living in a convenient and coastal location. This beautifully built townhome features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, with a desirable first-floor primary suite and a finished one-car garage. Inside, you'll find luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the entire home, a spacious laundry room, and a formal dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with granite countertops, white soft-close shaker-style cabinetry, and an open layout that flows seamlessly into the living spaces. Enjoy outdoor living with both a covered front porch and a back patio, ideal for relaxing

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• $80 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION COMMUNITY
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• FINISHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Autumn Trail
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Annual association fee of $960 (about $80/month); Association maintains grounds and structures and provides management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car); Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Townhouse (residential); Two levels / two stories; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Paved road access; No fencing; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Master suite on the main level; High ceilings; Ceiling fans; Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-134/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Bolivia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#549 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 575 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,273 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,075
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
554 Timbercrest Cir SE	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,567 (+1%)	6mo	$275,000	$175	92
522 Timbercrest Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,567 (+1%)	11mo	$275,000	$175	87
520 Timbercrest Cir SE Unit 5b	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,567 (+1%)	13mo	$270,000	$172	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-45,188
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-39,915
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 575
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,507

Max offer price $273,380

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $84	+0% $-11	+5% $-106	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-110	+0% $-11	+5% $87	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $59	base $-11	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
514 Silky Oak Dr SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,400	$1.44	25d	1	0.92mi
107 Little Doe Pl SW Supply, NC	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2064	$1,994	$0.97	16d	11	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,393
• − Management: −$2,393
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,737
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,137
• After-tax cash flow: $1,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bolivia

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #20206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 10,059
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $275,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $200 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.