548 Timbercrest Cir SE · Bolivia, NC 28422

$265,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,549 sqft · Townhouse public records · 134 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,178 sqft lot Garage $171/sqft · at area comps Est $265k · at est. $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Autumn Trail, a new construction community offering exceptional townhome living in a convenient and coastal location. This beautifully built townhome features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms, with a desirable first-floor primary suite and a finished one-car garage. Inside, you'll find luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the entire home, a spacious laundry room, and a formal dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with granite countertops, white soft-close shaker-style cabinetry, and an open layout that flows seamlessly into the living spaces.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• $80 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION COMMUNITY
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• FINISHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($282/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Bolivia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#549 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 784 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,945
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: 0.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
545 Timbercrest Cir SE	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,807 (+17%)	0mo	$247,850	$137	68
2084 Cypress Hill Dr SE Lot 273	0.92mi	3/2.5	1,518 (-2%)	2mo	$296,250	$195	60
526 Silky Oak Dr SE Lot 260	0.90mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+4%)	3mo	$341,640	$211	53
518 Silky Oak Dr SE Lot 262	0.91mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+4%)	3mo	$331,990	$205	53
522 Silky Oak Dr SE Lot 261	0.91mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+8%)	4mo	$345,990	$207	46
401 Blossom Tree Ln SE	1.17mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+10%)	0mo	$429,900	$251	45
2087 Cypress Hill Dr SE Lot 18	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+8%)	6mo	$338,990	$203	45
2124 Cypress Hill Dr SE Lot 86	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,881 (+21%)	1mo	$360,140	$191	37
432 Eden Dr SW	1.18mi	3/2.0	1,895 (+22%)	2mo	$349,900	$185	36
2046 Cypress Hill Dr SE Lot 280	0.95mi	3/3.0	1,928 (+24%)	3mo	$362,999	$188	36
846 Compass Rose Ln SW	1.29mi	3/2.0	1,874 (+21%)	4mo	$379,000	$202	34
2060 Cypress Hill Dr Lot 279	0.93mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+14%)	1mo	$339,999	$192	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-41,359
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-33,738
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 78.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $260,850 ($144/sqft)
• Median days on market: 120 d
• This list price: 77% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 784
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,449 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,419

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $115	+0% $23	+5% $-68	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-73	+0% $23	+5% $120	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $91	base $23	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 Creekway Cir SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.5	2101	$2,350	$1.12	6d	1	0.25mi
514 Silky Oak Dr SE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,400	$1.44	119d	1	0.92mi
107 Little Doe Pl SW Supply, NC	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2064	$2,099	$1.02	0d	10	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Autumn Trail
• HOA & community: Homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $960 (about $80/month)Association maintains grounds and structures and provides management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)Paved parking
• Utilities: Public waterSewer availableWater available
• Home design: Townhouse (residential)Two levels / two storiesEntry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porchPatioPorchPaved road accessNo fencingHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeDishwasherMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Master suite on the main levelHigh ceilingsCeiling fansPantry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $265,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $265,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $265,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $265,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $265,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $265,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $265,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $265,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $265,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $265,000 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 110 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 109 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $275,000 Active 108 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $275,000 Active 107 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $275,000 Active 106 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $275,000 Active 104 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $275,000 Active 103 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $275,000 Active 102 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $275,000 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $275,000 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $275,000 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $275,000 Active 98 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $275,000 Active 97 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $275,000 Active 96 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $275,000 Active 95 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $275,000 Active 94 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $275,000 Active 93 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $275,000 Active 92 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $275,000 Active 91 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $275,000 Active 90 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $275,000 Active 89 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 88 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 87 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 86 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $275,000 Active 85 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 84 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 83 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 82 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 79 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 77 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $275,000 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $275,000 Active 73 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $275,000 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,351
• − Management: −$2,351
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$990
• After-tax cash flow: $1,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virginia Williamson Elem D NC #417/1,410 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle F NC #305/475 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High West Brunswick High C- NC #281/535 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Bolivia

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #20206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 10,059
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Autumn Trail
• HOA & community: Homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $960 (about $80/month)Association maintains grounds and structures and provides management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)Paved parking
• Utilities: Public waterSewer availableWater available
• Home design: Townhouse (residential)Two levels / two storiesEntry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porchPatioPorchPaved road accessNo fencingHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeDishwasherMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Master suite on the main levelHigh ceilingsCeiling fansPantry

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $275,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $200 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.