1006 Raton Ave · La Junta, CO 81050

$20,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1922 5,249 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home and property is a great opportunity for a fix and flip! Close proximity to all the schools, park and hospital. Has great potential to be a 3 bed, 2 bath.

Key facts

• 5,249 sq ft lot
• Built 1922
• Listed 66 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-1
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water available
• Home design: Single-family residential; Frame construction with wood siding
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Wood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Double-pane windows with wood frames; Unfinished, partial basement; Covered porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $757 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 51.7% vs local median 4.1% in La Junta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#126 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• East Otero School District No. R1 (town): math 7% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #83 of 86 in CO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Junta Intermediate School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #793 of 966 statewide, top 84%, 407 students, 79% FRL); La Junta Jr/Sr High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #307 of 381 statewide, top 82%, 539 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $20k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 51.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 162.23%
• DSCR: 8.22
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1115 Cimarron Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,209 (-7%)	12mo	$140,000	$116	74
308 E 10th St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,234 (-5%)	15mo	$150,000	$122	66
702 Smithland Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-4%)	16mo	$275,000	$220	65
410 Raton Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	2mo	$80,000	$57	62
822 Colorado Ave	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (+12%)	5mo	$225,000	$155	61
1401 Bradish Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+6%)	2mo	$285,000	$208	60
1417 Bradish Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-4%)	10mo	$217,000	$174	56
501 Lewis Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,180 (-9%)	3mo	$77,000	$65	55
914 Santa Fe	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,109 (-14%)	11mo	$175,000	$158	54
621 Edison Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-12%)	13mo	$156,000	$136	49
324 Lewis Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-7%)	16mo	$52,000	$43	45
1320 Bradish Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (+10%)	12mo	$237,000	$166	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.03×
• Total profit: $44,982
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.08×
• Total profit: $101,276
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81050

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$4 /mo · $49/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $148

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $768	-5% $763	+0% $757	+5% $751	+10% $746
Rent	-10% $670	-5% $713	+0% $757	+5% $801	+10% $845
Rate	-1.0pp $767	-0.5pp $762	base $757	+0.5pp $752	+1.0pp $747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $20,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $20,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $20,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $20,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $20,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $20,000 Active
19. 2025-12-13
    historical
20. 2025-12-13
    historical
21. 2025-10-24
    price $39,900
22. 2025-10-24
    price $39,900
23. 2025-10-24
    price $39,900
24. 2025-10-24
    price $39,900
25. 2025-06-14
    listed $45,000 Active
26. 2025-06-14
    listed $45,000 Active
27. 2025-06-14
    listed $45,000 Active
28. 2008-06-24
    soldstatus $5,100
29. 2008-04-30
    listed $5,000
30. 2007-11-30
    listed $5,000
31. 2007-07-04
    listed $12,112

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $49 · $4/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $110 · $9/mo
• Expected delta: +$61/yr (+$5/mo · 125.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$49
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $9,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,233
• After-tax cash flow: $6,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Otero School District No. R1
• NCES district ID: 0805130
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,475
• Composite: 13.36/100
• National rank: #9534
• State rank: #83 of 86 in CO

Livability — La Junta

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #10703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Junta, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,774

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,363 people
• By 2030: 16,776 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 15,534 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 14,467 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 12,054 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 9,392 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.5% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.44%
• Current HPI: 232.984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+65.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $20,000 PARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $39,900 elevateMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $39,900 IRES
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $39,900 PARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $39,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-14 Listed $45,000 PARMLS
• 2025-06-14 Listed $45,000 IRES
• 2025-06-14 Listed $45,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-24 Sold (MLS) $5,100 PARMLS
• 2008-04-30 Listed $5,000 PARMLS
• 2007-11-30 Listed $5,000 PARMLS
• 2007-07-04 Listed $12,112 PARMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $49 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.