Falcon Plan · Ruskin, FL 34221

$367,999

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,471 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story Falcon floor plan in Firethorn features 2,471 square feet of open-concept living space, presenting 5 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a loft, 2-car garage, and many more memorable details. Downstairs includes a foyer, great room, a secondary bedroom with ensuite bathroom, kitchen and dining space alongside laundry and half-bath, while upstairs includes a loft space and three secondary bedrooms that share a bathroom. The primary suite is also nestled upstairs and includes a primary bathroom with dual vanity sinks, a walk-in shower, and spacious walk-in closet. Discover the Sherwood today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 106 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8936 Killbarry Ln, Palmetto, FL 34221; Listing status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $367,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Plan: Falcon; New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2,471 total living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $367,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $410,186.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $368k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,331/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $333,117 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $410,186
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13828 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	5/3.5	2,504 (+1%)	0mo	$385,000	$154	88
9320 Chiswell Trl	0.26mi	5/3.5	2,516 (+2%)	0mo	$365,900	$145	84
13721 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,271 (-8%)	1mo	$364,999	$161	67
13509 Shellmore Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (-12%)	0mo	$365,000	$168	65
13221 Shellmore Ave	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,723 (+10%)	2mo	$465,000	$171	65
13811 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,271 (-8%)	3mo	$365,000	$161	65
13212 Shellmore Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,723 (+10%)	1mo	$451,180	$166	64
13431 Shellmore Ave	0.10mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (-12%)	2mo	$380,000	$175	64
13407 Shellmore Ave	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (-12%)	2mo	$340,000	$157	64
9324 Chiswell Trl	0.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,271 (-8%)	3mo	$339,000	$149	60
9142 Dalera Cv	0.21mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (-12%)	3mo	$378,000	$174	59
7787 Ocean Spray Trl	0.75mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,655 (+7%)	2mo	$524,990	$198	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-89,114
• Equity at exit: $61,160

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-131,777
• Equity at exit: $35,465

Cash invested: $114,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,151
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$513 /mo · $6,153/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,588

Max offer price $380,800

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $-61	+0% $-203	+5% $-345	+10% $-487
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-335	+0% $-203	+5% $-71	+10% $60
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-99	base $-203	+0.5pp $-309	+1.0pp $-418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,546
• Closing costs: $12,306
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11612 Armada Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	2112	$3,400	$1.61	21d	1	1.19mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	25d	1	1.31mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	1.36mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	25d	1	1.40mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $367,999 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $367,999 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $367,999 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $367,999 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $367,999 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $367,999 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $367,999 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $367,999 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $367,999 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $367,999 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $367,999 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $367,999 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $367,999 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $367,999 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $367,999 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,977
• − Property taxes: −$6,153
• − Insurance: −$2,051
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,198
• − Management: −$3,198
• − Depreciation: −$11,933
• Taxable loss: −$9,535
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,288
• After-tax cash flow: $-149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Falcon floor plan in Ruskin, FL is in good condition with a good exterior and landscaping. It has a good potential for value increase with updates to the exterior, interior, and kitchen/bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Replace the landscaping — Fresh landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both Update the interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and increase the home's value.
• Both Install new flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Update the kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a wider range of buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Replace the landscaping — Fresh landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Update the interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Install new flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Update the kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to a wider range of buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B