1385 Mariposa Cir · Vineyards, FL 34105

$425,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,985 sqft · Other · 23 Days on market

Built 2005 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

23.000 under air two car garage sold as is. Appointment only does need some repair minor. No realtors please are allowed to show my property. This is for individuals that are looking on their own. Will use a title company should go into sale no realtors not interested. Do not call if you are a realtor. I will just hang up the phone.

Key facts

• Built 2005
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2005
• Construction: 1985 square feet of living area
• Exterior features: Located in the Urban Estates subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $425k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $941 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $419k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,909/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $418,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-19,266
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $19,827
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,375/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,031
• Net cashflow: $941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,718

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,235	-5% $1,088	+0% $941	+5% $794	+10% $647
Rent	-10% $553	-5% $747	+0% $941	+5% $1,135	+10% $1,329
Rate	-1.0pp $1,155	-0.5pp $1,049	base $941	+0.5pp $831	+1.0pp $719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1299 Verde Dr Unit 1503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$4,200	$2.41	14d	1	0.16mi
1303 Verde Dr Unit 1603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,500	$1.33	14d	1	0.18mi
1256 Carpazi Ct Unit 502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	14d	1	0.21mi
1256 Carpazi Ct #502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	24d	1	0.21mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	24d	1	0.27mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	21d	1	0.27mi
1205 Reserve Way #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$2,300	$1.86	14d	1	0.30mi
1105 Reserve Ct #307 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,995	$1.61	14d	1	0.33mi
12839 Carrington Cir Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2063	$6,500	$3.15	24d	1	0.51mi
12885 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2489	$10,000	$4.02	24d	1	0.51mi
13078 Pembroke Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2024	$6,500	$3.21	24d	1	0.53mi
12914 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1720	$7,000	$4.07	24d	1	0.55mi
6525 Monterey Pt Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$5,250	$2.29	14d	1	0.55mi
12902 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$7,500	$3.57	24d	1	0.58mi
6559 Monterey Pt Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2300	$9,000	$3.91	21d	1	0.59mi
6548 Monterey Pt Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$6,000	$2.62	14d	1	0.61mi
12832 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$5,250	$3.06	14d	1	0.63mi
12667 Biscayne Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2600	$8,500	$3.27	24d	1	0.65mi
6542 Marbella Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2144	$6,250	$2.92	24d	1	0.70mi
6670 Marbella Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2439	$8,400	$3.44	24d	1	0.72mi
3105 La Costa Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,235	$2.13	14d	20	0.94mi
104 Siena Way #1407 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$7,000	$4.83	24d	1	0.99mi
106 Siena Way #1508 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	24d	1	1.00mi
103 Tuscana Ct #1107 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1412	$5,000	$3.54	24d	1	1.03mi
155 Vintage Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$5,000	$3.33	14d	1	1.05mi
172 Vintage Cir #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$5,195	$2.93	14d	1	1.06mi
102 Tuscana Ct #901 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1631	$2,300	$1.41	24d	1	1.07mi
6025 Chardonnay Ln Unit 1Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,195	$1.55	24d	1	1.08mi
230 Vintage Cir Unit A-404 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1290	$5,000	$3.88	14d	1	1.09mi
3099 Lancaster Dr Unit 7-701 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$10,000	$4.63	24d	1	1.09mi
210 Vintage Cir Unit C401 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$6,500	$4.28	14d	1	1.13mi
200 Vintage Cir Unit D304 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,800	$1.88	14d	1	1.15mi
3255 Tamara Dr #4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,500	$1.74	14d	1	1.16mi
3250 Cypress Glen Way Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1242	$3,300	$2.66	21d	3	1.19mi
152 Napa Ridge Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1775	$7,000	$3.94	24d	1	1.21mi
3268 Amanda Ln #3 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,350	$1.64	14d	1	1.21mi
224 Via Perignon Unit 5-4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	2085	$6,000	$2.88	21d	1	1.23mi
116 Fountain Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$4,500	$2.88	24d	1	1.25mi
89 Silver Oaks Cir #5103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1373	$2,800	$2.04	21d	1	1.26mi
3304 Lisa Ln Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1272	$2,350	$1.85	14d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $425,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-26
    listed $425,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$6,375
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,712
• − Management: −$4,712
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable income: $4,810
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $10,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investment is needed to improve the roof, exterior, flooring, and interior, as well as updating the HVAC system and landscaping. The home's current condition is poor, and substantial work is required to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen in the satellite image.
• Major systems — No visible systems in the satellite image.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both exterior painting/staining — A fresh coat of paint or stain would enhance curb appeal and value.
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's aesthetic and functionality.
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both bathroom updates — Modernizing bathrooms would improve functionality and value.
• Both kitchen updates — Updating the kitchen would improve functionality and value.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping would enhance curb appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible exterior in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both exterior painting/staining — A fresh coat of paint or stain would enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's aesthetic and functionality. ↑
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both bathroom updates — Modernizing bathrooms would improve functionality and value. ↑
• Both kitchen updates — Updating the kitchen would improve functionality and value. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping would enhance curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vineyards

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #14101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $425,000 FSBO.com