801 E 21st St · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$264,210

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

The 1,600 square-foot Pamela floor plan offers a spacious, well-designed layout with room to grow into what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryThree additional storage closetsPrivate primary suite with large walk-in closetCovered back patio

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Brick exterior
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1600; Listing status: Active; List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Single-family speculative home (Plan: Pamela)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $170,481 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.77%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $113,408
• Equity at exit: $238,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $358,014
• Equity at exit: $513,302

Cash invested: $73,979 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,386
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,963/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,311

Max offer price $194,884

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-297	-5% $-388	+0% $-479	+5% $-570	+10% $-662
Rent	-10% $-614	-5% $-546	+0% $-479	+5% $-412	+10% $-344
Rate	-1.0pp $-346	-0.5pp $-412	base $-479	+0.5pp $-548	+1.0pp $-617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,052
• Closing costs: $7,926
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	14d	1	0.16mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	44d	1	0.17mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	44d	1	0.19mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.20mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	14d	1	0.20mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	44d	1	0.21mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	14d	1	0.22mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	44d	1	0.23mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	21d	1	0.24mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	44d	1	0.25mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	21d	1	0.26mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	44d	1	0.26mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	44d	1	0.27mi
1712 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	2.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	44d	1	0.30mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	14d	1	0.42mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	21d	1	0.43mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	44d	1	0.51mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	14d	1	0.52mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	44d	1	0.61mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	0.70mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	44d	1	1.17mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	14d	2	1.22mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	44d	1	1.27mi
7510 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,600	$1.06	44d	1	1.34mi
7449 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,625	$1.10	21d	1	1.35mi
7456 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,700	$1.16	44d	1	1.35mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	21d	1	1.36mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.36mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	44d	1	1.37mi
7440 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,600	$1.01	14d	1	1.40mi
7729 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,300	$1.16	14d	1	1.41mi
7732 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.43mi
7424 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,750	$1.10	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,210 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,210 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,210 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,210 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,210 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,210 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,210 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,210 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,210 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $264,210 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,210 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,210 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,210 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,210 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $264,210 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $264,210 Active 459-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,800
• − Property taxes: −$3,963
• − Insurance: −$1,321
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$7,686
• Taxable loss: −$10,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B