506 W Camino Penasco Unit B · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$84,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 81 Days on market

Built 1964 Average condition $410/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare find in the Villas, a 1 Bedroom duplex end unit! Privacy abundant with nice shade trees and no parking lot in front. Enjoy the privacy afforded with this cute villa, assigned parking is just steps away from the patio. Walk to shopping, restaurants and GVR Centers.

Key facts

• Duplex end unit
• Assigned parking
• Back patio

Tags

• DUPLEX END UNIT
• ASSIGNED PARKING
• BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 871 sq ft with irregular dimensions; Chip-and-seal road maintained by the county; Zoned Green Valley - TR
• HOA & community: Part of Villas West association; Monthly HOA fee of $410; HOA covers air conditioning/heating, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, pest control, roof repair and replacement; Community pool; Laundry available through the association; Maintenance provided by the association

Exterior

• Utilities: Water provided by a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Slump block construction; Built-up roof; Built in (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Covered paver patio; Patio; Decorative gravel; Borders common area; North/South exposure; Paved street (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas oven
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Gas oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $85k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.23%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-4,483
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $19,957
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$410
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $113	+0% $84	+5% $54	+10% $25
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $30	+0% $84	+5% $138	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $105	base $84	+0.5pp $62	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	16d	1	0.15mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	3d	1	0.15mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	3d	1	0.17mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	3d	1	0.22mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	25d	1	0.28mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	18d	1	0.28mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	18d	1	0.28mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	25d	1	0.28mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.32mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	25d	1	0.36mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	3d	1	0.36mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	25d	1	0.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $410 · $4,920/yr
• Likely covers: parking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $84,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $89,900
16. 2026-04-18
    price $91,500
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $97,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − HOA: −$4,920
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable loss: −$58
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14
• After-tax cash flow: $1,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

The property is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Worn but not damaged
• Minor kitchen appliances — Old but functional
• Minor bathroom fixtures — Old but functional

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and increases resale value
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and increases resale value
• Both Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and increases resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Worn but not damaged	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen appliances · Old but functional	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · Old but functional	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and increases resale value ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and increases resale value ↑
• Both Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and increases resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $89,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $91,500 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-01 Listed $97,000 MLSSAZ