13 Columbella St · Bay City, TX 77414

$169,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1983 7,797 sqft lot $132/sqft · 18% below area Est $206k · 18% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Bay City home tucked within a quiet cul-de-sac setting, offering both privacy and a welcoming neighborhood feel. The interior features vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light, creating an open and airy living space with a functional layout. The kitchen is well-positioned for everyday use, while the overall flow of the home supports comfortable living. Step outside to a spacious backyard with mature trees and a unique treehouse, adding character and flexibility for outdoor enjoyment. All-brick construction and a well-maintained condition further enhance the home’s appeal. Located in Flood Zone X, generally considered an area of minimal flood risk, with convenient access to local schools and amenities.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Treehouse
• Natural light

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC SETTING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• TREEHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,115 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,622
• List price: $169,500
• Delta: -17.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3104 El Camino St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+3%)	7mo	$224,900	$170	86
2809 El Camino St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+14%)	4mo	$210,000	$144	64
2617 Patriot Run	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+10%)	1mo	$227,990	$162	59
5048 Freedom Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+10%)	3mo	$220,990	$157	58
2608 Patriot Run	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+10%)	1mo	$230,990	$164	57
1121 Live Oak Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+10%)	1mo	$222,990	$158	56
810 Live Oak Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+13%)	3mo	$269,000	$187	56
1105 Live Oak Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	1mo	$227,990	$161	55
5016 Freedom Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	3mo	$229,990	$162	54
5033 Gallant St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+10%)	8mo	$231,990	$164	53
2621 Patriot Run	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	1mo	$235,990	$166	52
5009 Freedom Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	4mo	$227,990	$161	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-38,304
• Equity at exit: $25,273

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-45,956
• Equity at exit: $14,655

Cash invested: $47,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,801/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $138,115

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,375
• Closing costs: $5,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1417 Highland Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,600	$0.96	43d	1	0.78mi
2824 4th St Bay City, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,500 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,500 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,500 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,500 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $169,500 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $176,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $176,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $176,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $176,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $176,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $176,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $176,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $176,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $176,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $176,900 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $176,900 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $176,900 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Charming Bay City home tucked within a quiet cul-de-sac setting, offering both privacy and a welcoming neighborhood feel. The interior features vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light, creating an open and airy living space with a functional layout. The kitchen is well-positioned for everyday use, while the overall flow of the home supports comfortable living. Step outside to a spacious backyard with mature trees and a unique treehouse, adding character and flexibility for outdoor enjoyment. All-brick construction and a well-maintained condition further enhance the home’s appeal. Located in Flood Zone X, generally considered an area of minimal flood risk, with convenient access to local schools and amenities.

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $184,500 Active 734-char remark

    Show marketing remark (734 chars)

    Charming Bay City home tucked within a quiet cul-de-sac setting, offering both privacy and a welcoming neighborhood feel. The interior features vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light, creating an open and airy living space with a functional layout. The kitchen is well-positioned for everyday use, while the overall flow of the home supports comfortable living. Step outside to a spacious backyard with mature trees and a unique treehouse, adding character and flexibility for outdoor enjoyment. All-brick construction and a well-maintained condition further enhance the home’s appeal. Located in Flood Zone X, generally considered an area of minimal flood risk, with convenient access to local schools and amenities.

19. 2022-12-07
    soldstatus
20. 2010-11-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,801 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,801 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,495
• − Property taxes: −$3,801
• − Insurance: −$848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$4,931
• Taxable loss: −$5,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,214
• After-tax cash flow: $-918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $176,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $184,500 HARMLS
• 2022-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,801 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.