13058 Aspen Way Ct · Willis, TX 77318

$99,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1999 6,499 sqft lot $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent cozy home tucked into a quiet cul de sac. 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath with a large garden tub & shower in the primary bathroom. Large lot in established subdivision, close to I45 and 1097 shopping and dining.

Key facts

• Peaceful cul-de-sac
• Quiet neighborhood
• 6,499 sq ft lot

Tags

• PEACEFUL CUL-DE-SAC
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Pin Oak POA with an annual fee of $225

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1999
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Built in 1999
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric dryer hookup; Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $692 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 10421% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.37%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,801
• Equity at exit: $14,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $17,027
• Equity at exit: $8,642

Cash invested: $27,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,116/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $858

Max offer price $99,950

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,988
• Closing costs: $2,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 Longstreet Rd Unit 4 Willis, TX	1.0	1.0	561	$750	$1.34	43d	1	0.60mi
100 Lamar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	0.70mi
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,268	$1.14	1d	6	0.72mi
9706 Farm to Market 1097 Willis, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,030	$0.96	43d	1	0.78mi
203 E Watson St Willis, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,063	$1.52	43d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,950 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,950 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,950 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,950 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,950 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,950 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,950 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,950 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,950 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,950 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,950 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,950 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,950 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,829 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$713/yr (+$59/mo · 63.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,599
• − Property taxes: −$1,116
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,259
• − Management: −$1,259
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$2,908
• Taxable income: $2,872
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$689
• After-tax cash flow: $3,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+234.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed for Rent $950 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $99,950 HARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-15 Listed $89,950 HARMLS
• 2021-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-03 Listed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2021-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-03-02 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2021-02-10 Price Changed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2021-01-22 Listed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2003-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-02-11 Listed $29,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,116 · -14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.