1551 Blue Bayou Cir · Ruskin, FL 33570

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,606 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2021 6,364 sqft lot $65/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Experience effortless Florida living in this beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence, set within an amenity-rich pool community just moments from major highways, top conveniences, and everyday luxuries. This home blends openness, comfort, and style to create a lifestyle that feels both refined and relaxed. Step inside to an inviting open floorplan where natural light and spaciousness define the heart of the home. The large family room flows seamlessly into an eat-in kitchen, offering the perfect backdrop for morning coffee, casual gatherings, and memorable evenings. A split-bedroom layout ensures privacy for the primary suite while giving family and guests their own thoughtfully placed retreat. The interior features a neutral, elegant palette, providing a sophisticated canvas ready for your personal touch—whether your style leans modern, coastal, or classic. Extend your living space outdoors with a covered rear porch, ideal for unwinding, dining al fresco, or simply enjoying the breeze. A 2-car garage adds convenience and storage, while the community’s sparkling pool and inviting atmosphere elevate everyday living into something truly special. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of comfort, connection, and ease.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Eat-in kitchen
• Covered rear porch

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COVERED REAR PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ruskin Elementary School (math 30% / reading 23%, grade F, #2,009 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 781 students, 77% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 497 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,423 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-60,884
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-82,815
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33570

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 497
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,845/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,743

Max offer price $280,631

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-25	+0% $-110	+5% $-194	+10% $-279
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-212	+0% $-110	+5% $-7	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-33	base $-110	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1251 9th St SE Ruskin, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1650	$3,500	$2.12	7d	1	0.27mi
1105 Windton Oak Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,399	$1.16	26d	1	0.48mi
1119 Windton Oak Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2041	$2,325	$1.14	4d	1	0.50mi
1721 2nd St SE Ruskin, FL	4.0	1.5	1321	$1,883	$1.43	0d	1	0.70mi
2306 Lawrence Hall St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,100	$1.21	13d	1	0.82mi
2205 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1790	$2,000	$1.12	26d	1	0.87mi
2222 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1790	$2,250	$1.26	26d	1	0.89mi
1029 Spotted Egret Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,150	$1.47	7d	1	0.92mi
1501 21st St SE Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1618	$2,155	$1.33	6d	1	0.94mi
2235 Colville Chase Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1936	$2,400	$1.24	26d	1	0.95mi
2025 Peaceful Palm St Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1606	$2,600	$1.62	16d	1	1.02mi
2345 Roanoke Springs Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	1801	$2,250	$1.25	7d	1	1.16mi
2304 Pleasure Run Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,970	$1.54	6d	1	1.18mi
213 6th Ave SW Ruskin, FL	3.0	1.0	1620	$1,795	$1.11	1d	1	1.27mi
149 Cascade Bend Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,400	$1.54	26d	1	1.34mi
424 Newmont Cir Ruskin, FL	3.0	3.0	1707	$1,950	$1.14	26d	1	1.41mi
320 Blue Point Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,155	$1.22	0d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $299,990 Pending 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,990 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-05-10
    price $315,000 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Experience effortless Florida living in this beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence, set within an amenity-rich pool community just moments from major highways, top conveniences, and everyday luxuries. This home blends openness, comfort, and style to create a lifestyle that feels both refined and relaxed. Step inside to an inviting open floorplan where natural light and spaciousness define the heart of the home. The large family room flows seamlessly into an eat-in kitchen, offering the perfect backdrop for morning coffee, casual gatherings, and memorable evenings. A split-bedroom layout ensures privacy for the primary suite while giving family and guests their own thoughtfully placed retreat. The interior features a neutral, elegant palette, providing a sophisticated canvas ready for your personal touch—whether your style leans modern, coastal, or classic. Extend your living space outdoors with a covered rear porch, ideal for unwinding, dining al fresco, or simply enjoying the breeze. A 2-car garage adds convenience and storage, while the community’s sparkling pool and inviting atmosphere elevate everyday living into something truly special. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of comfort, connection, and ease.

14. 2026-04-07
    status Active 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Experience effortless Florida living in this beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence, set within an amenity-rich pool community just moments from major highways, top conveniences, and everyday luxuries. This home blends openness, comfort, and style to create a lifestyle that feels both refined and relaxed. Step inside to an inviting open floorplan where natural light and spaciousness define the heart of the home. The large family room flows seamlessly into an eat-in kitchen, offering the perfect backdrop for morning coffee, casual gatherings, and memorable evenings. A split-bedroom layout ensures privacy for the primary suite while giving family and guests their own thoughtfully placed retreat. The interior features a neutral, elegant palette, providing a sophisticated canvas ready for your personal touch—whether your style leans modern, coastal, or classic. Extend your living space outdoors with a covered rear porch, ideal for unwinding, dining al fresco, or simply enjoying the breeze. A 2-car garage adds convenience and storage, while the community’s sparkling pool and inviting atmosphere elevate everyday living into something truly special. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of comfort, connection, and ease.

15. 2026-04-01
    status Pending 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Experience effortless Florida living in this beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence, set within an amenity-rich pool community just moments from major highways, top conveniences, and everyday luxuries. This home blends openness, comfort, and style to create a lifestyle that feels both refined and relaxed. Step inside to an inviting open floorplan where natural light and spaciousness define the heart of the home. The large family room flows seamlessly into an eat-in kitchen, offering the perfect backdrop for morning coffee, casual gatherings, and memorable evenings. A split-bedroom layout ensures privacy for the primary suite while giving family and guests their own thoughtfully placed retreat. The interior features a neutral, elegant palette, providing a sophisticated canvas ready for your personal touch—whether your style leans modern, coastal, or classic. Extend your living space outdoors with a covered rear porch, ideal for unwinding, dining al fresco, or simply enjoying the breeze. A 2-car garage adds convenience and storage, while the community’s sparkling pool and inviting atmosphere elevate everyday living into something truly special. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of comfort, connection, and ease.

16. 2026-03-04
    listed $320,000 Active 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Experience effortless Florida living in this beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence, set within an amenity-rich pool community just moments from major highways, top conveniences, and everyday luxuries. This home blends openness, comfort, and style to create a lifestyle that feels both refined and relaxed. Step inside to an inviting open floorplan where natural light and spaciousness define the heart of the home. The large family room flows seamlessly into an eat-in kitchen, offering the perfect backdrop for morning coffee, casual gatherings, and memorable evenings. A split-bedroom layout ensures privacy for the primary suite while giving family and guests their own thoughtfully placed retreat. The interior features a neutral, elegant palette, providing a sophisticated canvas ready for your personal touch—whether your style leans modern, coastal, or classic. Extend your living space outdoors with a covered rear porch, ideal for unwinding, dining al fresco, or simply enjoying the breeze. A 2-car garage adds convenience and storage, while the community’s sparkling pool and inviting atmosphere elevate everyday living into something truly special. This is more than a home—it’s a lifestyle of comfort, connection, and ease.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,845 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,845 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,845
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,500
• − Management: −$2,500
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,537
• After-tax cash flow: $222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruskin, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,319
• Household income: $72,172
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.10%
• Current HPI: 277.8257
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+55.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,845 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.