6 Softwind · Terminous, CA 95242

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1975 5,214 sqft lot $174/sqft · 23% below area Est $326k · 23% under $255/mo HOA · 10% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Close to Tower Park! Manufactured home on owned land (no space rent) priced to sell and needs a little TLC. Great upside in Lodi 95242. Opportunity in Lodi! * * 6 Softwood Drive features a manufactured home on owned land (no space rent) * * and is * * close to Tower Park * * , with easy access to shopping, dining, and commuter routes. The home offers a functional layout and a yard with room to personalize and make it your own. * * Priced to sell and needing a little TLC * * , this is a great chance for a buyer looking to add value through updates. Come see the potential and envision the possibilities! This is a contingent sale of the owner finding a replacement property!

Key facts

• Close to tower park
• 5,214 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots

Tags

• CLOSE TO TOWER PARK
• YARD WITH ROOM TO PERSONALIZE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (21.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,100 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellerth E. Larson Elementary (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D-, #490 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 858 students, 59% FRL); Lodi Middle (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #256 of 498 statewide, top 52%, 898 students, 80% FRL); Tokay High (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #514 of 1,170 statewide, top 44%, 2,059 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,194 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.09%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,573
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -23.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-56,182
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-58,276
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95242

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,235/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$255
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,995

Max offer price $196,194

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-234	+0% $-305	+5% $-375	+10% $-446
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-408	+0% $-305	+5% $-202	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-179	-0.5pp $-241	base $-305	+0.5pp $-369	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Robin Ct Lodi, CA	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	0d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $255 · $3,060/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2025-07-08
    soldstatus $280,000
17. 2021-02-18
    soldstatus $242,500
18. 2020-12-01
    soldstatus $158,000
19. 2004-09-29
    soldstatus $175,000
20. 2001-08-06
    soldstatus $92,000
21. 1996-06-06
    soldstatus $83,500
22. 1989-11-03
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,235 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,235 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,235
• − Insurance: −$6,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,505
• − Management: −$2,505
• − HOA: −$3,060
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,832
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Terminous

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1100
• US rank: #25404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Terminous, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,427
• Household income: $104,721
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 778.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.67%
• Current HPI: 265.9974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+211.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $242,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1996-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 1989-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,235 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.