48683 Beachville Rd · St. George Island, MD 20684

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2001 4.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

4 acres w/ trailer, trailer sold AS-IS. Possible 3 additional buildable lots - all percs approved.

Key facts

• Percs approved
• 4 acres
• 4 acre lot

Tags

• 4 ACRES
• 3 ADDITIONAL BUILDABLE LOTS
• PERCS APPROVED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ground rent payment due annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with dirt driveway surface
• Utilities: Well water; Private septic tank (Perc approved); Electric service
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Assessor indicates year built (source available)
• Exterior features: Not located in a federal flood zone; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Shed on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove; Refrigerator; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (owned) heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Heat pump(s); Ceiling fans for additional cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Carpeted surfaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.6% in St. George Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,165 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $17,647
• Equity at exit: $128,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $87,602
• Equity at exit: $193,186

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20684

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,360/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,391

Max offer price $264,145

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $299,000 Active
17. 2026-03-31
    historical
18. 2025-10-08
    listed $319,000 Active
19. 2021-08-31
    historical
20. 2020-10-12
    listed $270,000 Active
21. 2020-03-04
    status Pending
22. 2020-03-04
    historical
23. 2020-02-27
    listed $255,000 Active
24. 2020-02-11
    historical
25. 2020-02-11
    historical
26. 2019-10-31
    listed $255,000 Active
27. 2019-10-31
    listed $255,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,360 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,809 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$450/yr (+$37/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,360
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,851
• After-tax cash flow: $-516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — St. George Island

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 825

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.64%
• Current HPI: 239.7784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+17.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $319,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-12 Listed $270,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-27 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-31 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-31 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,360 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.