12439 Chester Creek Cir · Atascocita, TX 77346

$250,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,098 sqft · Townhouse public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2016 2,982 sqft lot $119/sqft · at area comps Est $263k · at est. $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Impeccably maintained townhome in desirable Eagle Springs, offering comfort, style, and convenience within an exceptional community featuring resort-style pools, parks, sports complex, and highly acclaimed Humble ISD schools. Filled with natural light, this charming home boasts a spacious first-floor living area that flows seamlessly into the gourmet kitchen with breakfast bar island, dining area, stainless steel appliances, white-washed brick backsplash, beautiful 42-inch cabinets with soft-close drawers, modern cool-tone walls, and abundant storage. Upstairs, enjoy a spacious primary retreat, two secondary bedrooms connected by a Jack-and-Jill bath, a versatile loft ideal for a game room or home office, and a convenient laundry room. The fenced backyard with patio offers a private outdoor space, while the prime location provides easy access to shopping, dining, major highways, and Bush Intercontinental Airport—making this move-in-ready townhome a true standout.

Key facts

• Resort-style pools
• Sports complex
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE POOLS
• SPORTS COMPLEX
• FIRST-FLOOR LIVING AREA
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Springs El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 688 students, 30% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,837 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,132
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -4.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12439 Chester Creek Cir	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,098 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$119	100
18434 Jasmine Garden Pl	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,997 (-5%)	1mo	$260,000	$130	89
18402 Jasmine Garden Pl	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,040 (-3%)	7mo	$269,900	$132	88
18442 Jasmine Garden Pl	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,962 (-6%)	3mo	$246,000	$125	85
18406 Jasmine Garden Pl	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,082 (-1%)	16mo	$287,782	$138	84
12407 Alora Bluff Trl	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,169 (+3%)	16mo	$249,900	$115	77
18523 Triana Bend Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,855 (-12%)	4mo	$258,000	$139	76
12422 Chester Creek Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,050 (-2%)	23mo	$275,000	$134	75
18539 Triana Bend Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,186 (+4%)	20mo	$289,000	$132	74
12414 Alora Bluff Trl	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,910 (-9%)	20mo	$258,000	$135	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,657
• Equity at exit: $60,897

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-63,738
• Equity at exit: $64,417

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$589 /mo · $7,064/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,653

Max offer price $199,837

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-142	-5% $-213	+0% $-284	+5% $-355	+10% $-425
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-375	+0% $-284	+5% $-193	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-158	-0.5pp $-220	base $-284	+0.5pp $-349	+1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	13d	1	0.48mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	45d	1	0.51mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,806	$1.19	0d	1	0.60mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	45d	1	0.61mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	7d	1	0.71mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	0.74mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	26d	1	0.76mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	45d	1	0.86mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	17d	1	0.99mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	0d	1	1.05mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	45d	1	1.05mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	45d	1	1.08mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	26d	1	1.14mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	7d	1	1.18mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	26d	1	1.18mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	7d	1	1.21mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	0d	1	1.28mi
17401 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,139	$1.97	0d	41	1.30mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	45d	1	1.31mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	19d	1	1.43mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Pending 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Pending 68 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Pending 67 DOM
5. 2026-03-25
   listed $250,000 Active 983-char remark

   Show marketing remark (983 chars)

   Impeccably maintained townhome in desirable Eagle Springs, offering comfort, style, and convenience within an exceptional community featuring resort-style pools, parks, sports complex, and highly acclaimed Humble ISD schools. Filled with natural light, this charming home boasts a spacious first-floor living area that flows seamlessly into the gourmet kitchen with breakfast bar island, dining area, stainless steel appliances, white-washed brick backsplash, beautiful 42-inch cabinets with soft-close drawers, modern cool-tone walls, and abundant storage. Upstairs, enjoy a spacious primary retreat, two secondary bedrooms connected by a Jack-and-Jill bath, a versatile loft ideal for a game room or home office, and a convenient laundry room. The fenced backyard with patio offers a private outdoor space, while the prime location provides easy access to shopping, dining, major highways, and Bush Intercontinental Airport—making this move-in-ready townhome a true standout.

6. 2018-04-05
   historical
7. 2018-01-09
   listed $219,500 Active
8. 2016-12-19
   status Pending
9. 2016-12-19
   historical
10. 2016-11-02
    listed $199,340 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,064 · $589/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,064 · $589/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$7,064
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2018-04-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-01-09 Listed $219,500 HARMLS
• 2016-12-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-12-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-11-02 Listed $199,340 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,064 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.