11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #356 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$49,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

Built 1982 Good condition $52/sqft · 36% below area Est $77k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

GORGEOUS 2b 2b! This home Is as cozy as they come! Bright open living space, Split floor plan, brand new water heater, beautiful flooring throughout, beautiful kitchen cabinetry, private Patio, large storage shed, This inviting home IS THE ONE! Bring your vision and take advantage of this well-priced opportunity in the 55+Gated Resort like community of ROSE GARDEN, with prime access to Pool,Spa, clubhouse, Work out Facility, and All the Amenities! Huge Dog park and Pickleball Courts!

Key facts

• Spa
• Split floor plan
• Private patio

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• BRAND NEW WATER HEATER
• PRIVATE PATIO
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• PRIME ACCESS TO POOL
• SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $902 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.2% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $430 of equity ($342 loan paydown + $88 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.13%
• DSCR: 4.48
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,995
• List price: $49,500
• Delta: -35.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #283	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+8%)	5mo	$74,000	$72	82
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #5	0.19mi	2/2.0	922 (-3%)	9mo	$69,000	$75	78
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #125	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+9%)	15mo	$61,000	$59	63
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #169	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+11%)	18mo	$45,000	$43	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $51,850
• Equity at exit: $14,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.82×
• Total profit: $108,381
• Equity at exit: $18,160

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $902

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $937	-5% $920	+0% $902	+5% $885	+10% $868
Rent	-10% $778	-5% $840	+0% $902	+5% $965	+10% $1,027
Rate	-1.0pp $927	-0.5pp $915	base $902	+0.5pp $890	+1.0pp $877

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	25d	1	0.57mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,497	$1.91	25d	1	0.57mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	13d	1	0.64mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,714	$2.19	15d	1	0.64mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	44d	4	0.74mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$962	$1.52	3d	3	0.74mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$1,025	$1.62	25d	4	0.74mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	18d	4	0.87mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,175	$2.07	6d	4	0.87mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,165	$2.05	2d	5	0.87mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	19d	4	0.87mi
12221 W Bell Rd #175 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	560	$1,198	$2.14	44d	1	0.89mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	1.11mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	6d	1	1.21mi
10831 W Tropicana Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$2,800	$2.81	20d	1	1.35mi
10814 W El Capitan Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$3,000	$3.02	15d	1	1.38mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	25d	1	1.47mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,017	$2.15	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 587-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   price $49,500 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $35,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    status $35,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $42,000 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    GORGEOUS 2b 2b! This home Is as cozy as they come! Bright open living space, Split floor plan, brand new water heater, beautiful flooring throughout, beautiful kitchen cabinetry, private Patio, large storage shed, This inviting home IS THE ONE! Bring your vision and take advantage of this well-priced opportunity in the 55+Gated Resort like community of ROSE GARDEN, with prime access to Pool,Spa, clubhouse, Work out Facility, and All the Amenities! Huge Dog park and Pickleball Courts!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $10,677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,562
• After-tax cash flow: $8,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This cozy manufactured home in Rose Garden offers a good condition with minor repairs needed in the kitchen and flooring. Paint and updates to the kitchen would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor kitchen countertops — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace worn hardwood flooring — New flooring enhances both appearance and value
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen countertops · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn hardwood flooring — New flooring enhances both appearance and value ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $42,000 ARMLS