6446 Kennington Cir · Point Baker, FL 32570

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · Townhouse public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1984 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home with 2 living rooms that could be a play room for a young family. This home is in a quiet neighborhood that is only 10 minutes from Whiting Field NAS and 15 minutes from I 10. The spacious backyard has a large 14X14 shed and a 16X12 deck for grilling.

Key facts

• Open deck
• Vaulted living room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• VAULTED LIVING ROOM
• BUILT IN DISPLAY SHELVING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CONVERTED GARAGE AREA
• FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Two covered parking spaces; 2-car carport with front entrance access
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: Attached dwelling; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Privacy fenced backyard; Deck; Yard building and workshop on the property; Paved, county-maintained road access; Insulated walls; Has fireplace (exterior feature noted)

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen; Granite countertops; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Updated bathrooms with granite countertops and updated cabinets
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace(s); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; High-speed internet available; Insulated doors; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($267/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Point Baker — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#735 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. H. Rhodes Elementary School (math 55% / reading 47%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 812 students, 79% FRL); Martin Luther King Middle School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 660 students, 69% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 36% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $245k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,641 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-38,951
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-34,810
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,543/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,918

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $92	+0% $22	+5% $-47	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-55	+0% $22	+5% $99	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $85	base $22	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6707 Cedar Ridge Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1669	$1,900	$1.14	16d	1	1.05mi
6716 Barnwood Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,850	$1.06	25d	1	1.33mi
6747 Weathered Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,800	$1.16	25d	1	1.33mi
5733 Orange St Milton, FL	3.0	1.5	1640	$1,500	$0.91	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $245,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Contingent 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Contingent 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Contingent 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Contingent 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $245,000 Contingent 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $245,000 Contingent 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $245,000 Contingent 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $245,000 Contingent 21 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Contingent 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Contingent 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    historical Contingent
13. 2026-05-11
    listed $245,000 Active
14. 2020-04-28
    soldstatus $149,000
15. 2020-04-24
    soldstatus $149,000 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home with 2 living rooms that could be a play room for a young family. This home is in a quiet neighborhood that is only 10 minutes from Whiting Field NAS and 15 minutes from I 10. The spacious backyard has a large 14X14 shed and a 16X12 deck for grilling.

16. 2020-01-23
    listed $155,000 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home with 2 living rooms that could be a play room for a young family. This home is in a quiet neighborhood that is only 10 minutes from Whiting Field NAS and 15 minutes from I 10. The spacious backyard has a large 14X14 shed and a 16X12 deck for grilling.

17. 2018-02-16
    soldstatus $125,000 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Charming 3 bed/2 bath home with all of the updates you could imagine. New tile flooring, updated kitchen cabinets and countertops, newer appliances & new windows to name a few! This home is ideal for a young family as it is situated in a quiet neighborhood and the big backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities. Also, there is a large shed on the property that accents the house perfectly and provides an ample amount of storage. Don't miss out on this great home!

18. 2017-10-16
    listed $125,000 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Charming 3 bed/2 bath home with all of the updates you could imagine. New tile flooring, updated kitchen cabinets and countertops, newer appliances & new windows to name a few! This home is ideal for a young family as it is situated in a quiet neighborhood and the big backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities. Also, there is a large shed on the property that accents the house perfectly and provides an ample amount of storage. Don't miss out on this great home!

19. 2016-10-25
    soldstatus $109,000
20. 2016-08-06
    listed $112,500
21. 2016-06-18
    soldstatus $55,125
22. 2016-03-22
    listed $56,900
23. 1999-12-03
    soldstatus $70,000
24. 1989-04-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$491/yr (+$41/mo · 31.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,543
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$960
• After-tax cash flow: $1,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Point Baker

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #735
• US rank: #15840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+444.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $245,000 PARMLS
• 2020-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-24 Sold (MLS) $149,000 PARMLS
• 2020-01-23 Listed $155,000 PARMLS
• 2018-02-16 Sold (MLS) $125,000 PARMLS
• 2017-10-16 Listed $125,000 PARMLS
• 2016-10-25 Sold (MLS) $109,000 PARMLS
• 2016-08-06 Listed $112,500 PARMLS
• 2016-06-18 Sold (MLS) $55,125 PARMLS
• 2016-03-22 Listed $56,900 PARMLS
• 1999-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1989-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,543 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.