1780 Deer Ridge Rd · Tillamook, OR 97141

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set along Deer Ridge Rd, this property offers a private, treed setting just outside Tillamook. The land provides a versatile canvas for future use, with room to create a retreat, small homestead, or recreational getaway. An existing manufactured home is on site. Buyers are encouraged to complete their own due diligence

Key facts

• Recreational getaway
• 0.38 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• PRIVATE TREED SETTING
• RECREATIONAL GETAWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.38 acres (15,000–19,999 sq ft); Parcel number 163263
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; RV access/parking; 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electricity and propane available; Public/community water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition; Main living area on one level; Year built 1973; Seasonal tree/wooded view
• Construction: Composition roof; Skirting and slab foundation
• Exterior features: T-111 siding; Wood siding; Seasonal waterfront; Gentle sloping, level and wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (main level)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Main level); Second bedroom (Main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; No central air
• Interior features: Great room; Family room; Dining room; Living room; Seasonal views of trees/woods

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $796 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.2% in Tillamook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#73 in OR, #3,288 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Tillamook SD 9 (town): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #44 of 58 in OR (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (276 students, 77% FRL); Tillamook Junior High School (math 20% / reading 42%, grade F, #83 of 128 statewide, top 65%, 344 students, 69% FRL); Tillamook High School (math 15% / reading 47%, grade F, #106 of 143 statewide, top 74%, 723 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.14%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $36,960
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.10×
• Total profit: $97,585
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97141

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $796

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 320-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $85,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥75°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,720
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,093
• After-tax cash flow: $7,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tillamook SD 9
• NCES district ID: 4112320
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $42,989
• Composite: 25.47/100
• National rank: #7446
• State rank: #44 of 58 in OR

Livability — Tillamook

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #3288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,734

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.35%
• Current HPI: 214.2308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $85,000 RMLS