Estonian Plan · Austin, TX 78652

$392,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,384 sqft · SingleFamily · 521 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Estonian floorplan invites you in from the moment you enter this 2,384 square foot home. This 2-story, open-concept home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 full bath, a study, a powder room, a covered patio, and a 2nd -story game room. Upgrade options for this home include a fireplace, an extended covered patio, 3-panel glass door slider, a bay window and deluxe bath for the owner's suite, a 4th bedroom in lieu of the study, and additional custom cabinets in the dining area.

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• Covered patio
• Bay window

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• GAME ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• BAY WINDOW
• DELUXE BATH
• CUSTOM CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $392,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $437,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $393k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-926 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 521 days — a 12% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,438 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 521 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.08%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,490
• List price: $392,990
• Delta: -10.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13205 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+2%)	2mo	$429,990	$177	80
13113 Geary Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+2%)	6mo	$434,990	$178	80
13214 Stabler Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-6%)	0mo	$419,990	$188	79
13108 Geary Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+2%)	5mo	$424,990	$174	79
13111 Geary Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-6%)	5mo	$415,990	$186	79
13201 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+2%)	5mo	$449,990	$184	78
13207 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-6%)	3mo	$416,990	$187	78
13106 Geary Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-6%)	5mo	$410,990	$184	78
13115 Geary Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (-6%)	5mo	$419,990	$187	72
13116 Geary Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (-6%)	5mo	$424,990	$189	71
12617 Iron Bridge Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,320 (-3%)	5mo	$465,000	$200	50
205 Tangled Brush Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,110 (-12%)	4mo	$449,000	$213	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-129,857
• Equity at exit: $65,231

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-188,893
• Equity at exit: $37,826

Cash invested: $122,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.8 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $404,990 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 53 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78652

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,654 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$547 /mo · $6,562/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,827

Max offer price $303,433

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-624	-5% $-775	+0% $-926	+5% $-1,078	+10% $-1,229
Rent	-10% $-1,136	-5% $-1,031	+0% $-926	+5% $-822	+10% $-717
Rate	-1.0pp $-706	-0.5pp $-815	base $-926	+0.5pp $-1,040	+1.0pp $-1,155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,372
• Closing costs: $13,125
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	28d	1	0.13mi
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	10d	1	0.13mi
806 Dayton Dr Unit 110 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,395	$1.28	18d	1	0.21mi
12901 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2429	$2,649	$1.09	40d	1	0.21mi
12803 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,450	$1.41	64d	1	0.28mi
13207 Easley Dr Unit 1039127P Manchaca, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$7,254	$4.04	26d	1	0.61mi
12407 Altamira St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2501	$2,895	$1.16	16d	1	0.69mi
12613 Twisted Root Dr Unit 1 Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.5	3211	$2,800	$0.87	12d	1	0.72mi
601 Puerta Vallarta Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,490	$1.35	93d	1	0.84mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	39d	1	1.02mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,900	$1.22	73d	1	1.02mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	53d	1	1.02mi
12213 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.5	2739	$3,100	$1.13	12d	1	1.02mi
12000 S Interstate 35 Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1294	$1,997	$1.54	10d	43	1.07mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $392,990 Active 521 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $392,990 Active 519 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $392,990 Active 518 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $392,990 Active 517 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $392,990 Active 516 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $392,990 Active 513 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $392,990 Active 511 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $392,990 Active 510 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $392,990 Active 508 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $392,990 Active 506 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $392,990 Active 505 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $392,990 Active 504 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $392,990 Active 503 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $392,990 Active 502 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $392,990 Active 500 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $392,990 Active 499 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $392,990 Active 498 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $392,990 Active 497 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $390,990 Active 496 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $390,990 Active 495 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $390,990 Active 494 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $390,990 Active 493 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $390,990 Active 492 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $390,990 Active 491 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $390,990 Active 489 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $390,990 Active 488 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $390,990 Active 487 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $390,990 Active 485 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $390,990 Active 484 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $390,990 Active 483 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $390,990 Active 482 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $390,990 Active 481 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $390,990 Active 480 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $390,990 Active 478 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $390,990 Active 476 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $390,990 Active 474 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $390,990 Active 473 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $390,990 Active 470 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $390,990 Active 469 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $390,990 Active 468 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $390,990 Active 467 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $390,990 Active 465 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $390,990 Active 461 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $390,990 Active 460 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $390,990 Active 459 DOM
46. 2026-06-05
    days on market $390,990 Active 456 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,990 Active 455 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,990 Active 454 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,990 Active 453 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,990 Active 452 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,506
• − Property taxes: −$6,562
• − Insurance: −$2,187
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,548
• − Management: −$2,548
• − Depreciation: −$12,727
• Taxable loss: −$19,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,614
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features a modern floorplan with excellent condition and minimal maintenance required. Potential buyers will appreciate the fresh paint and updated fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,287
• Household income: $133,368
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.32%
• Current HPI: 233.9814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $390,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $388,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $387,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $386,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $385,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $384,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $474,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Listed $504,990 Zillow