Is Estonian Plan in Austin, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.8% cap rate and $-923/mo modeled cash flow at a $394,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Estonian Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 3.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,659/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 28.85

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.6/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +4.1/5.0
Schools +3.4/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.1/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$394,990

Estonian Plan · Austin, TX 78652

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,384 sqft · SingleFamily · 568 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 23% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Estonian floorplan invites you in from the moment you enter this 2,384 square foot home. This 2-story, open-concept home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 full bath, a study, a powder room, a covered patio, and a 2nd -story game room. Upgrade options for this home include a fireplace, an extended covered patio, 3-panel glass door slider, a bay window and deluxe bath for the owner's suite, a 4th bedroom in lieu of the study, and additional custom cabinets in the dining area.

Key facts

Custom cabinets
Covered patio
Bay window

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-923 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (23.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (32.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $266k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 59d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 568 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,892 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 568 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.61% ✗
Cap rate: 3.76%
Cash-on-cash: -9.04%
DSCR: 0.60
GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $437,490
List price: $394,990
Delta: -9.71%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13106 Incline Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+2%)	0mo	$421,990	$173	86
13217 Stabler Dr	0.15mi	3/3.0	2,434 (+2%)	1mo	$434,990	$179	84
13211 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+2%)	0mo	$419,990	$172	82
13207 Keefer Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+2%)	1mo	$419,990	$172	80
13205 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+2%)	3mo	$429,990	$177	79
13212 Stabler Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+2%)	2mo	$439,990	$181	78
13214 Stabler Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-6%)	2mo	$419,990	$188	78
13207 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-6%)	5mo	$416,990	$187	77
13213 Stabler Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (-6%)	1mo	$415,990	$185	74
13208 Stabler Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (-6%)	1mo	$416,990	$185	73
13202 Stabler Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (-6%)	2mo	$429,990	$191	73
205 Tangled Brush Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,110 (-12%)	5mo	$449,000	$213	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.4%
Equity multiple: -0.06×
Total profit: $-129,629
Equity at exit: $65,231

10-year hold

IRR: -37.7%
Equity multiple: -0.54×
Total profit: $-188,400
Equity at exit: $37,826

Cash invested: $122,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 53 active · 25 under contract
Months of supply: 13.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $415,000 ($187/sqft)
Median days on market: 48 d
This list price: 34% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78652

Active inventory: 123
Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,659 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,294
Tax est. 1.5%: −$547 /mo · $6,562/yr
Insurance: −$182
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
Net cashflow: $-923

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,827

Max offer price $303,952

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-621	-5% $-772	+0% $-923	+5% $-1,074	+10% $-1,225
Rent	-10% $-1,133	-5% $-1,028	+0% $-923	+5% $-818	+10% $-713
Rate	-1.0pp $-703	-0.5pp $-812	base $-923	+0.5pp $-1,036	+1.0pp $-1,152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $109,372
Closing costs: $13,125
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	56d	1	0.13mi
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	74d	1	0.13mi
806 Dayton Dr Unit 110 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,395	$1.28	64d	1	0.21mi
12901 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2429	$2,649	$1.09	87d	1	0.21mi
12803 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,450	$1.41	110d	1	0.28mi
12613 Stanford Dr Unit 86 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.5	2038	$2,500	$1.23	0d	1	0.36mi
13207 Easley Dr Unit 1039127P Manchaca, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$6,128	$3.41	0d	1	0.61mi
232 Tangled Brush Dr Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.5	2109	$2,750	$1.30	40d	1	0.65mi
12407 Altamira St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2501	$2,895	$1.16	62d	1	0.69mi
12613 Twisted Root Dr Unit 1 Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.5	3211	$2,800	$0.87	58d	1	0.72mi
701 Cardenas Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	2061	$2,895	$1.40	5d	1	0.73mi
500 Cardenas Ln Austin, TX	4.0	3.5	2122	$2,700	$1.27	10d	1	0.77mi
615 Linares Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,425	$1.32	10d	1	0.78mi
601 Puerta Vallarta Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,490	$1.35	139d	1	0.84mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	85d	1	1.02mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,900	$1.22	119d	1	1.02mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	100d	1	1.02mi
12213 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.5	2739	$3,100	$1.13	58d	1	1.02mi
12000 S Interstate 35 Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1344	$2,153	$1.60	0d	58	1.07mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $394,990 Active 568 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $394,990 Active 567 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $394,990 Active 566 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $394,990 Active 564 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $394,990 Active 563 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $394,990 Active 562 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $394,990 Active 561 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $394,990 Active 560 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $394,990 Active 559 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $394,990 Active 558 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $394,990 Active 557 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $394,990 Active 556 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $394,990 Active 555 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $394,990 Active 549 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $394,990 Active 548 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $394,990 Active 547 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $394,990 Active 544 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $394,990 Active 542 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $394,990 Active 541 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $394,990 Active 540 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $394,990 Active 538 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $394,990 Active 537 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $394,990 Active 536 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $394,990 Active 535 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $394,990 Active 534 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $394,990 Active 533 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $394,990 Active 532 DOM
2026-08-18

pricedays on market $394,990 Active 531 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $392,990 Active 530 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $392,990 Active 529 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $392,990 Active 528 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $392,990 Active 527 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $392,990 Active 526 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $392,990 Active 525 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $392,990 Active 524 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $392,990 Active 523 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $392,990 Active 522 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $392,990 Active 521 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $392,990 Active 519 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $392,990 Active 518 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $392,990 Active 517 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $392,990 Active 516 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $392,990 Active 513 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $392,990 Active 511 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $392,990 Active 510 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $392,990 Active 508 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $392,990 Active 506 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $392,990 Active 505 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $392,990 Active 504 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $392,990 Active 503 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $31,907
− Mortgage interest: −$24,506
− Property taxes: −$6,562
− Insurance: −$2,187
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,553
− Management: −$2,553
− Depreciation: −$12,727
Taxable loss: −$19,181

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,603
After-tax cash flow: $-6,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features a modern floorplan with excellent condition and minimal maintenance required. Potential buyers will appreciate the fresh paint and updated fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal ↑
Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

Schools (NCES district)

District: Austin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808940
Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income: $54,627
Composite: 33.65/100
National rank: #5397
State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Austin

Score: 82/100
State rank: #16
US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Austin, TX
County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
City population: 1,066,854
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 5,287
Household income: $133,368
Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -177.32%
Current HPI: 233.9814
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-22.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-05-06 Price Changed $390,990 Zillow
2026-03-25 Price Changed $388,990 Zillow
2026-03-17 Price Changed $387,990 Zillow
2026-02-21 Price Changed $386,990 Zillow
2026-02-17 Price Changed $385,990 Zillow
2025-12-04 Price Changed $384,990 Zillow
2025-06-30 Price Changed $474,990 Zillow
2025-03-06 Listed $504,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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