1614 Cole Rd · Bellmead, TX 76705

$59,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1994 7,841 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide home offering comfort, and functionality. This all-electric home features central heat and air, along with washer and dryer connections for added convenience. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully designed layout that includes a separate dining room, a cozy den, and an additional living room—perfect for entertaining or creating flexible living spaces. The kitchen comes equipped with a stove, refrigerator, and dishwasher, making it move-in ready. The primary suite includes a full bathroom with a relaxing garden tub, providing a perfect place to unwind. Both bathrooms are generously sized and well-appointed. Recently installed side deck is ideal

Key facts

• Double-wide home
• Central heat and air
• Separate dining room

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE HOME
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• WASHER AND DRYER CONNECTIONS
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• ADDITIONAL LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN EQUIPPED WITH STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Security: Audio and video surveillance present
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Individual water meter; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); One level
• Construction: Composition roof; Year built 1994; Not attached to other properties
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot; Accessible approach with ramp; Community mailbox

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Dry bar; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Pantry; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Cap rate 26.7% vs local median 5.1% in Bellmead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#893 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• La Vega ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #680 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Vega El (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 659 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 79% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.06%
• DSCR: 4.25
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $53,104
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.45×
• Total profit: $123,110
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $516/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $1,006

Break-even live

Break-even rent $477

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,039	-5% $1,022	+0% $1,006	+5% $989	+10% $972
Rent	-10% $867	-5% $937	+0% $1,006	+5% $1,075	+10% $1,144
Rate	-1.0pp $1,035	-0.5pp $1,021	base $1,006	+0.5pp $990	+1.0pp $975

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1011 Kane St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,695	$1.38	45d	1	0.97mi
109 E Frost St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,200	$1.64	14d	1	1.38mi
218 Avenue F Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,600	$1.20	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 687-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $59,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $516 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 109.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$516
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $11,810
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,834
• After-tax cash flow: $9,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Vega ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826280
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,539
• Composite: 23.42/100
• National rank: #7892
• State rank: #680 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bellmead

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #16031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellmead, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 31,750
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $59,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $516 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.