Co Rd 577 · Mellen, MI 49893

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Other · 31 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

I have a cozy three bed one and a half bathroom house for sale in the county. This house is on 1.9 acres with a nice yard and woods. Some features include a large living room, steel roof with new sheeting when the steel was installed, all new 3/4in osb sub floor and waterproof flooring installed april of 2025. This house is on a concrete slab with a crawl space under entire house. Over half the house is redone in drywall. Included with the house is a brand new stainless steel fridge and stove and an older dishwasher, washer, and dryer. The septic was pumped 9-12-2025. I have a new title being issued because I lost the original.

Key facts

• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($938/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stephenson Area Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #158 of 540 in MI (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Menominee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Menominee County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $119,244 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $24,464
• Equity at exit: $60,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $74,847
• Equity at exit: $97,668

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49893

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $121	+0% $78	+5% $35	+10% $-8
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $31	+0% $78	+5% $125	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $110	base $78	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$268
• After-tax cash flow: $1,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires significant exterior and structural repairs, including a new roof, to improve its condition and value. Interior updates to the kitchen and bathrooms would also significantly enhance its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in photos

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint and stain exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace roof — Critical structural component, improves safety and value
• Both Update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing these areas can significantly increase value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof in photos	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint and stain exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace roof — Critical structural component, improves safety and value ↑
• Both Update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizing these areas can significantly increase value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephenson Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633000
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,428
• Composite: 37.65/100
• National rank: #4372
• State rank: #158 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mellen

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,307

Population outlook (Menominee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,668 people
• By 2030: 21,986 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,196 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 18,335 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 14,771 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 10,999 · -51.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Menominee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+29.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Current HPI: 243.7334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com