45 Pelican Cir · Flovilla, GA 31064

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,797 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1990 0.80 ac lot Est $332k · 10% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

A rare find in Turtle Cove - double lot with only one amenity. The home is surrounded by mature trees to give the home privacy while being only a short golf cart ride to the Turtle Cove Clubhouse. The home is a well maintained only one family owner. Large open living room, with an efficient kitchen and master suite on the main level. Upstairs are two bedrooms sharing a hall bathroom. Relax and enjoy the rocking chair front porch or entertaining friends on the covered back deck. New water heater and dishwasher recently installed. This house has a stand-up crawl space with workshop space or storage. The last several photos of the listing gives you a sample of the many amenities of Turtle Cove

Key facts

• Workshop space
• Double lot
• Covered back deck

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• ROCKING CHAIR FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK DECK
• STAND-UP CRAWL SPACE
• WORKSHOP SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $415 monthly fee; Community amenities include clubhouse, golf, lake access, playground, pool, and tennis courts; One-time initiation fee of $100

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with garage door opener; Kitchen-level parking access
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank; Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 1990; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total, 1 on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.4% in Flovilla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#332 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Jasper County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #113 of 174 in GA (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington Park Elementary School (math 27% / reading 29%, grade F, #673 of 1,228 statewide, top 55%, 564 students, 60% FRL); Jasper County Middle School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 630 students, 58% FRL); Jasper County High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #68 of 424 statewide, top 17%, 725 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 34% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,379 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,445
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Raven Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-4%)	1mo	$329,000	$191	74
1155 Turtle Cove Trailway	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,948 (+8%)	2mo	$359,900	$185	72
55 Bobwhite Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+5%)	2mo	$375,400	$199	63
243 Pelican Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-13%)	6mo	$329,900	$210	63
225 Tanager Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,752 (-2%)	2mo	$285,000	$163	62
60 Blackbird Cir Lot 70	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-11%)	3mo	$315,000	$197	60
240 Pelican Cir	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,004 (+12%)	8mo	$344,900	$172	56
114 Bobwhite Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+5%)	8mo	$369,900	$196	54
281 Mockingbird Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-10%)	3mo	$185,000	$114	54
64 Swallow Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+8%)	13mo	$359,000	$184	50
515 Waxwing Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-10%)	12mo	$235,000	$145	49
97 Thrusher Ct	0.50mi	3/3.0	2,005 (+12%)	12mo	$344,000	$172	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $141,235
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $432,673
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31064

• Home prices YoY: 16.0%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,382

Max offer price $239,300

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-169	-5% $-253	+0% $-338	+5% $-423	+10% $-507
Rent	-10% $-492	-5% $-415	+0% $-338	+5% $-261	+10% $-184
Rate	-1.0pp $-187	-0.5pp $-262	base $-338	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-494

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $299,000 Under Contract 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active Under Contract 94 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2026-02-26
    listed $299,000 New
17. 2026-02-26
    historical
18. 2026-01-08
    price $299,000
19. 2025-10-19
    price $309,500
20. 2025-09-17
    listed $319,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,751 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$904/yr (+$75/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 34% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$9,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,283
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper County
• NCES district ID: 1302970
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,606
• Composite: 22.99/100
• National rank: #7980
• State rank: #113 of 174 in GA

Livability — Flovilla

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #17497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,020 people
• By 2030: 12,538 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 11,355 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 9,955 · -23.5%
• By 2075: 6,646 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 4,022 · -69.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.4) · D 20.6% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -58.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.4 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+46.7 2012: R+38.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 58.00%
• Current HPI: 420.9288
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $299,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $299,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $309,500 GAMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $319,500 GAMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,846 · -11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.