4840 SW 38th Ln Unit F12 · Gainesville, FL 32608

$39,100

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 134 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as scenic views, a playground, and a basketball court, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Basketball court
• Scenic views
• Playground

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS
• PLAYGROUND
• BASKETBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,408 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 126.21%
• DSCR: 6.62
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $66,828
• Equity at exit: $5,830

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.88×
• Total profit: $151,919
• Equity at exit: $3,381

Cash invested: $10,948 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32608

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $586/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $1,151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $342

Max offer price $39,100

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,775
• Closing costs: $1,173
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,100 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,100 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,100 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,100 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,100 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,100 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,100 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,100 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,100 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,100 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,100 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,100 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,100 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,100 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,100 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,100 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-02-04
    listed $39,100 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as scenic views, a playground, and a basketball court, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,190
• − Property taxes: −$586
• − Insurance: −$196
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$1,137
• Taxable income: $14,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,367
• After-tax cash flow: $10,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its curb appeal and overall condition, increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major concrete driveway — Cracks and deterioration
• Major landscaping — Overgrown yard and lack of landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both paint exterior walls — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Restores exterior appearance and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
concrete driveway · Cracks and deterioration	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown yard and lack of landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both paint exterior walls — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Restores exterior appearance and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 54,566
• Household income: $61,588
• Rent vs Own: 58.7% rent · 41.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4709.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 13% Asian 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.91%
• Current HPI: 253.0629
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $39,100 Zillow