Robie Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$383,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Large walk-in closet
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DOWNSTAIRS
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY
• EXTRA AREA FOR WORK OR PLAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $383,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan named Robie; Single-family home (plan)
• Construction: Built in 2026 (new construction); Living area approximately 2447
• Exterior features: Address: Parrish, FL (17325 Whiskey Creek Trl)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open-plan living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

🏗️ New construction. The $383,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $442,907.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $337,911 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $442,907
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17407 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.12mi	5/3.0	2,447 (0%)	5mo	$390,640	$160	90
17432 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.16mi	5/3.0	2,490 (+2%)	3mo	$460,000	$185	87
17440 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.18mi	5/3.0	2,490 (+2%)	4mo	$450,000	$181	86
17505 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.27mi	5/3.0	2,490 (+2%)	1mo	$450,625	$181	84
17452 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,336 (-4%)	2mo	$450,000	$193	72
17215 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,336 (-4%)	6mo	$450,870	$193	72
17443 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-8%)	1mo	$375,000	$166	70
17447 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-8%)	1mo	$375,000	$166	70
17419 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-8%)	4mo	$372,490	$165	70
17219 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,773 (+13%)	3mo	$405,000	$146	64
17223 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,773 (+13%)	3mo	$432,517	$156	64
1709 Cobb Trl	0.73mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,787 (+14%)	3mo	$529,500	$190	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-104,824
• Equity at exit: $66,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-159,492
• Equity at exit: $38,295

Cash invested: $124,014 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,323
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$554 /mo · $6,644/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$717
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,874

Max offer price $390,433

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-210	+0% $-363	+5% $-516	+10% $-669
Rent	-10% $-632	-5% $-498	+0% $-363	+5% $-228	+10% $-93
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-250	base $-363	+0.5pp $-477	+1.0pp $-594

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,727
• Closing costs: $13,287
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15769 High Bell Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	15d	1	1.36mi
204 Lone Dove Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,570	$1.14	3d	1	1.46mi
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $383,990 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $383,990 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $383,990 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $383,990 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,810
• − Property taxes: −$6,644
• − Insurance: −$2,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,279
• − Management: −$3,279
• − Depreciation: −$12,885
• Taxable loss: −$12,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,910
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B