414 W Fairhaven Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$154,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1965 6,889 sqft lot Est $198k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, sitting room or an office off of the main bedroom with access to the back yard, 1.75 bath, slump block construction, rolled roofing with elasti-coat, back covered patio, AC, gas heating, gas water heater, fireplace in the family room, eat in kitchen with wood cabinets, dishwasher, refrigerator, center island with a glass top counter range, electric wall oven, garbage disposal, exterior laundry off of the double carport, front retaining wall, partially fenced back yard with grass and natural desert landscaping, French doors close off the living room. Call the office to set up an appointment.

Key facts

• Office
• Study
• Family room

Tags

• SITTING ROOM
• OFFICE
• STUDY
• PRIVATE EXIT
• FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ray Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 184 students, 55% FRL); Ray Jr/Sr High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 189 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $155k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.57%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,560
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
345 W Essex Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,757 (-2%)	13mo	$135,000	$77	80
412 W Fairhaven Rd	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,711 (-5%)	14mo	$210,000	$123	75
327 W Essex Rd	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (-2%)	9mo	$184,000	$104	73
346 W Greenwich Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,744 (-3%)	18mo	$192,000	$110	70
307 W Essex Rd	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,686 (-6%)	6mo	$235,000	$139	66
428 W Ivanhoe Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-15%)	24mo	$207,000	$135	48
409 S Mountain View Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,826 (+2%)	13mo	$289,000	$158	47
301 W Fairhaven Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (-9%)	20mo	$159,900	$98	44
602 S York Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,651 (-8%)	18mo	$172,000	$104	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $104,047
• Equity at exit: $139,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.70×
• Total profit: $290,791
• Equity at exit: $300,937

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,208

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $354	+0% $310	+5% $266	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $247	+0% $310	+5% $373	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $349	base $310	+0.5pp $270	+1.0pp $229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $154,900 Active
3. 2020-02-07
   soldstatus $66,000
4. 2017-04-30
   historical
5. 2017-04-18
   listed $130,000 Active
6. 2015-02-27
   soldstatus $85,000 Closed 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   2 bedroom, sitting room or an office off of the main bedroom with access to the back yard, 1.75 bath, slump block construction, rolled roofing with elasti-coat, back covered patio, AC, gas heating, gas water heater, fireplace in the family room, eat in kitchen with wood cabinets, dishwasher, refrigerator, center island with a glass top counter range, electric wall oven, garbage disposal, exterior laundry off of the double carport, front retaining wall, partially fenced back yard with grass and natural desert landscaping, French doors close off the living room. Call the office to set up an appointment.

7. 2015-01-06
   status Pending 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   2 bedroom, sitting room or an office off of the main bedroom with access to the back yard, 1.75 bath, slump block construction, rolled roofing with elasti-coat, back covered patio, AC, gas heating, gas water heater, fireplace in the family room, eat in kitchen with wood cabinets, dishwasher, refrigerator, center island with a glass top counter range, electric wall oven, garbage disposal, exterior laundry off of the double carport, front retaining wall, partially fenced back yard with grass and natural desert landscaping, French doors close off the living room. Call the office to set up an appointment.

8. 2014-09-10
   listed $70,000 Active 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   2 bedroom, sitting room or an office off of the main bedroom with access to the back yard, 1.75 bath, slump block construction, rolled roofing with elasti-coat, back covered patio, AC, gas heating, gas water heater, fireplace in the family room, eat in kitchen with wood cabinets, dishwasher, refrigerator, center island with a glass top counter range, electric wall oven, garbage disposal, exterior laundry off of the double carport, front retaining wall, partially fenced back yard with grass and natural desert landscaping, French doors close off the living room. Call the office to set up an appointment.

9. 2012-05-31
   soldstatus $54,000 Closed
10. 2012-05-08
    status Pending
11. 2012-04-13
    price $56,900
12. 2012-03-20
    status Active
13. 2012-02-01
    status Pending
14. 2011-12-09
    price $59,900
15. 2011-10-25
    status Active
16. 2011-09-17
    price $64,900 Pending
17. 2011-09-17
    status Pending
18. 2011-08-01
    listed $44,900 Active
19. 2005-08-08
    listed $76,500
20. 2005-08-08
    historical
21. 1995-11-27
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,022 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $1,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $3,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+121.3% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $154,900 ARMLS
• 2020-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-04-18 Listed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2015-02-27 Sold (MLS) $85,000 ARMLS
• 2015-01-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2014-09-10 Listed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2012-05-31 Sold (MLS) $54,000 ARMLS
• 2012-05-08 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-04-13 Price Changed $56,900 ARMLS
• 2012-03-20 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2012-02-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-12-09 Price Changed $59,900 ARMLS
• 2011-10-25 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2011-09-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-09-17 Price Changed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2011-08-01 Listed $44,900 ARMLS
• 2005-08-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-08-08 Listed $76,500 ARMLS
• 1995-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $928 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.