4470 Bessie Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 903 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1926 5,401 sqft lot $44/sqft · 7% above area Est $37k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors new and seasoned... Property needs some TLC. This property is being sold as-is with the seller providing no repairs, inspections, or warranties. So call your favorite real estate agent and submit your offer today!

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• Built 1926
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($987 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.91%
• DSCR: 3.58
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,338
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: 7.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4547 Bessie Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	906 (+0%)	4mo	$39,500	$44	89
4556 Carter Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0	936 (+4%)	3mo	$67,500	$72	82
4607 Lee Ave	0.19mi	3/1.5 (+1)	912 (+1%)	4mo	$25,000	$27	79
4475 N Taylor Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	848 (-6%)	2mo	$80,000	$94	74
4330 Penrose St	0.28mi	2/1.0	800 (-11%)	1mo	$15,000	$19	67
4729 Margaretta Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0	982 (+9%)	2mo	$9,900	$10	61
4848 Calvin Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,004 (+11%)	4mo	$65,000	$65	53
4610 Lexington Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5 (+1)	945 (+5%)	8mo	$35,000	$37	50
4551 Lexington Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	812 (-10%)	10mo	$15,000	$18	48
4669 Elmbank Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	798 (-12%)	5mo	$40,000	$50	42
4885 Anderson Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	809 (-10%)	10mo	$89,000	$110	42
4231 East San Francisco	0.57mi	1/1.0 (-1)	795 (-12%)	10mo	$15,000	$19	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $27,937
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $68,624
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $150/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $302

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4493 Bessie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	880	$1,250	$1.42	44d	1	0.03mi
4497 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	16d	1	0.09mi
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	44d	1	0.33mi
4460 Bircher Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	1100	$725	$0.66	10d	1	0.40mi
4426 Holly Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	14d	1	0.40mi
4847 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,473	$1.47	2d	1	0.51mi
4732 W Florissant Ave Unit 2nd St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	44d	1	0.74mi
4919 Thekla Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	931	$700	$0.75	44d	1	0.74mi
4908 W Florissant Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$695	$0.93	44d	1	0.86mi
4301 E Warne Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$525	$0.95	44d	1	0.88mi
4627 Maffitt Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$795	$1.13	44d	1	1.00mi
3819 Kossuth Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.5	816	$725	$0.89	24d	1	1.11mi
3516 Russell Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	560	$875	$1.56	7d	1	1.29mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	4d	1	1.29mi
3644 Natural Bridge Ave Apt 203 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	570	$680	$1.19	44d	1	1.40mi
3644 Natural Bridge Ave Apt 303 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	710	$825	$1.16	44d	1	1.40mi
4935 Alcott Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	680	$705	$1.04	16d	1	1.41mi
5200 Von Phul St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	24d	1	1.41mi
2002 Obear Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	4d	1	1.45mi
1906 Obear Ave #1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $40,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $45,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $45,000 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Calling all investors new and seasoned... Property needs some TLC. This property is being sold as-is with the seller providing no repairs, inspections, or warranties. So call your favorite real estate agent and submit your offer today!

15. 2026-04-09
    listed $50,000 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Calling all investors new and seasoned... Property needs some TLC. This property is being sold as-is with the seller providing no repairs, inspections, or warranties. So call your favorite real estate agent and submit your offer today!

16. 2021-11-15
    soldstatus $31,500
17. 2021-03-19
    price $43,000
18. 2004-01-07
    soldstatus
19. 2001-06-29
    soldstatus $54,000
20. 2001-06-04
    soldstatus
21. 1996-03-07
    soldstatus
22. 1995-10-06
    soldstatus
23. 1993-10-29
    soldstatus $18,000
24. 1991-04-22
    soldstatus $13,164
25. 1990-02-09
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $150 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 158.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$150
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$947
• − Management: −$947
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $6,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,486
• After-tax cash flow: $5,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 2021-03-19 Price Changed $43,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1991-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $13,164 Public Records
• 1990-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $150 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.