11640 River Rd · Matoaca, VA 23838

$285,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1976 0.35 ac lot $231/sqft · 15% below area Est $334k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to easy one level living in Chesterfield. Recently renovated with thoughtful updates throughout, this well maintained home features all new windows and doors, newer flooring, a renovated kitchen with granite counters, and a beautifully renovated full bath. The eat in kitchen offers a fresh, functional space for everyday meals, while the well appointed family room is perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or gathering with loved ones. Large bedrooms provide plenty of space, and the single level layout makes daily living simple and convenient. With stylish updates and a desirable Chesterfield location, this home is move in ready and waiting for its next owner to love.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 32 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.9% in Matoaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $248k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,239
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -14.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-12,499
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $32,278
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23838

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,930/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,246

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $285,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $285,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $285,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-05-01
   listed $299,000 Active 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   Welcome home to easy one level living in Chesterfield. Recently renovated with thoughtful updates throughout, this well maintained home features all new windows and doors, newer flooring, a renovated kitchen with granite counters, and a beautifully renovated full bath. The eat in kitchen offers a fresh, functional space for everyday meals, while the well appointed family room is perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or gathering with loved ones. Large bedrooms provide plenty of space, and the single level layout makes daily living simple and convenient. With stylish updates and a desirable Chesterfield location, this home is move in ready and waiting for its next owner to love.

5. 2026-04-15
   historical $299,000 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   Welcome home to easy one level living in Chesterfield. Recently renovated with thoughtful updates throughout, this well maintained home features all new windows and doors, newer flooring, a renovated kitchen with granite counters, and a beautifully renovated full bath. The eat in kitchen offers a fresh, functional space for everyday meals, while the well appointed family room is perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or gathering with loved ones. Large bedrooms provide plenty of space, and the single level layout makes daily living simple and convenient. With stylish updates and a desirable Chesterfield location, this home is move in ready and waiting for its next owner to love.

6. 2024-02-28
   soldstatus $247,500
7. 2024-02-27
   soldstatus $247,500 Closed 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   Beautifully Remodeled 3BR 1BA Rambler with two adjoining lots! This one has been updated inside and out. .. Kitchen has brand new Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, and Cabinets! Bathroom has new fixtures and vanity. .. New flooring and paint through out the home gives it that brand new feel! This one also has a new HVAC system and water heater. .This property also includes two adjoining lots; 11638 River Road (PID # 746-629-60-00000), the second lot is; 11702 River Rd. ( PID # 746-629-56-96-00000). .Schedule your showing soon, this one will not last long!!

8. 2023-12-30
   status Pending 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   Beautifully Remodeled 3BR 1BA Rambler with two adjoining lots! This one has been updated inside and out. .. Kitchen has brand new Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, and Cabinets! Bathroom has new fixtures and vanity. .. New flooring and paint through out the home gives it that brand new feel! This one also has a new HVAC system and water heater. .This property also includes two adjoining lots; 11638 River Road (PID # 746-629-60-00000), the second lot is; 11702 River Rd. ( PID # 746-629-56-96-00000). .Schedule your showing soon, this one will not last long!!

9. 2023-12-26
   price $247,500 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   Beautifully Remodeled 3BR 1BA Rambler with two adjoining lots! This one has been updated inside and out. .. Kitchen has brand new Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, and Cabinets! Bathroom has new fixtures and vanity. .. New flooring and paint through out the home gives it that brand new feel! This one also has a new HVAC system and water heater. .This property also includes two adjoining lots; 11638 River Road (PID # 746-629-60-00000), the second lot is; 11702 River Rd. ( PID # 746-629-56-96-00000). .Schedule your showing soon, this one will not last long!!

10. 2023-12-13
    listed $249,900 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Beautifully Remodeled 3BR 1BA Rambler with two adjoining lots! This one has been updated inside and out. .. Kitchen has brand new Stainless Steel Appliances, Granite Countertops, and Cabinets! Bathroom has new fixtures and vanity. .. New flooring and paint through out the home gives it that brand new feel! This one also has a new HVAC system and water heater. .This property also includes two adjoining lots; 11638 River Road (PID # 746-629-60-00000), the second lot is; 11702 River Rd. ( PID # 746-629-56-96-00000). .Schedule your showing soon, this one will not last long!!

11. 2023-02-01
    status Pending
12. 2023-01-25
    price $234,000
13. 2023-01-12
    price $234,900
14. 2022-12-29
    price $234,000
15. 2022-12-13
    price $234,900
16. 2022-12-07
    status Active
17. 2022-08-05
    status Pending
18. 2022-07-29
    price $237,900
19. 2022-07-26
    price $239,900
20. 2022-07-21
    price $240,000
21. 2022-07-19
    price $245,000
22. 2022-07-05
    price $249,900
23. 2022-06-28
    listed $259,900 Active
24. 2022-04-06
    soldstatus $133,000
25. 2009-09-22
    historical
26. 2009-08-05
    historical
27. 2008-11-12
    listed $230,900
28. 2008-11-12
    listed $230,900
29. 2008-05-26
    historical
30. 2008-05-26
    historical
31. 2007-10-03
    listed $15,900
32. 2007-10-03
    listed $15,900
33. 2007-03-12
    historical
34. 2007-03-12
    historical
35. 2007-01-03
    listed $30,000
36. 2007-01-03
    listed $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,930
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,800
• − Management: −$2,800
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $1,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$430
• After-tax cash flow: $5,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Matoaca

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,213

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.94%
• Current HPI: 257.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+896.7% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $299,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $299,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $247,500 Public Records
• 2024-02-27 Sold (MLS) $247,500 CVRMLS
• 2023-12-30 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-12-26 Price Changed $247,500 CVRMLS
• 2023-12-13 Listed $249,900 CVRMLS
• 2023-02-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-01-25 Price Changed $234,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-01-12 Price Changed $234,900 CVRMLS
• 2022-12-29 Price Changed $234,000 CVRMLS
• 2022-12-13 Price Changed $234,900 CVRMLS
• 2022-12-07 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2022-08-05 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2022-07-29 Price Changed $237,900 CVRMLS
• 2022-07-26 Price Changed $239,900 CVRMLS
• 2022-07-21 Price Changed $240,000 CVRMLS
• 2022-07-19 Price Changed $245,000 CVRMLS
• 2022-07-05 Price Changed $249,900 CVRMLS
• 2022-06-28 Listed $259,900 CVRMLS
• 2022-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-08-05 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-11-12 Listed $230,900 CVRMLS
• 2008-11-12 Listed $230,900 CVRMLS
• 2008-05-26 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-05-26 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-10-03 Listed $15,900 CVRMLS
• 2007-10-03 Listed $15,900 CVRMLS
• 2007-03-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-03-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-01-03 Listed $30,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-01-03 Listed $30,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,930 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.